The rail moves into the True position having been out 6m at the previous meeting at Moe on June 4. The track was rated a Soft 7 on Wednesday, with a few showers forecast on race day. I’d expect horses closer to the speed to be advantaged, as is typically the case at Moe.
Jockey Billy Egan strikes at 23 per cent from 70 rides at Moe, which compares against a strike-rate of 16 per cent across all tracks over the past two seasons. Egan has six rides on Thursday, including the early favourite Pop Rock in Race 2.
OVERS
Race 3 No.16 – Shepmate
He couldn’t keep up with them in the mid stages of the race first-up over 1200m but was strong late running home in the fastest closing sectionals of the race and the second-fastest last 200m of the day. He rises quickly in distance to 1600m and could improve sharply. At $51 in the early betting, he appeals as over the odds on an each-way basis, 1×3.
Race 4 No.2 – Hollandia/No.7 – Suffolk Star
Hollandia ran out of room late on debut at Pakenham before a strong finish at Sale at his second start, where he put a big gap on the odds-on favourite Upwoods in third. He looks suited by the rise in distance and I’m surprised he’s a longer price than Upwoods in the early betting.
Suffolk Star was doing his best work the last 100m and through the line at Cranbourne on debut. He’s bred to relish the rise in distance and is open to plenty of natural improvement at only his second start. At $5 each, I’m happy to back both Hollandia and Suffolk Star and effectively take $2.50 for one of the pair to win.
UNDERS
Race 4 No.6 – Shockstar/No.8 – Upwoods
Both Shockstar and Upwoods’ last-start starting prices seem to be weighing heavily on their respective early prices. Shockstar seemed to have every chance at Echuca as the $2.20 favourite and was plain late. Upwoods led at a fast speed and probably slowed things down too much in the mid-stages but was still beaten nearly five lengths by Hollandia. At $3.80 and $4.60 respectively in the early betting, they both appear well under the odds.
Race 3 No.16 – Shepmate
Race 4 No.2 – Hollandia/No.7 – Suffolk Star