Round 13 of the AFL saw the second of four bye rounds come and go and we were treated to some phenomenal games, upsets and (as per usual) some horrendous kicking for goal.
What are the cases for and against teams making the finals, top four and even winning the premiership in 2023?
COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES – 1st (11-2)
As covered in this column, the Magpies were ‘just going’ and with the flu running rampant through the squad midweek, it was a perfect storm for Collingwood to lose its second match of the season on Monday against Melbourne.
Still, Collingwood is 11-2 at the bye and they definitely looked as though they’ve needed over the past month.
Both Daicos brothers were off, Brody Mihocek was quiet against Steven May and Scott Pendlebury looked ‘fumbly’ for the first time in 20 years.
Dan McStay will be a massive addition post-bye, as Collingwood lacked a legitimate target up forward on Monday. His return, plus Jordan De Goey and Jamie Elliot over the next month from suspension and injury will be important for the Pies charge to September.
The best football we have seen this season was Round 2 at the MCG, where Collingwood flattened Port Adelaide by 71 points.
As for a bet, wait until Port Adelaide (perhaps) win on Thursday as there will be better prices for Collingwood post-bye.
MELBOURNE DEMONS – 3rd (9-4)
Melbourne produced a statement win against Collingwood at the MCG on Monday.
The margin should have been much greater than the two points: 8 goals 18 behinds was shambolic and nearly cost the Dees the win.
The worry is the lack of a legitimate power forward for the Demons.
Bayley Fritsch kicked three goals to make it 27 for the season so far, but’s it’s not enough.
Despite that Melbourne are still ranked second in the AFL for points scored in 2023 (one point behind Adelaide).
The pending return of Clayton Oliver to the midfield will only add to Melbourne’s credentials, but the Demons are likely too short at this stage.
Zak Butters (left) and Jed McEntee of the Power celebrate. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
PORT ADELAIDE POWER – 2nd (11-2)
Port made it 10 wins in a row on Friday night and nine in a row at Marvel Stadium (we can hear Kochie petitioning for the Grand Final to be moved to Docklands already) with the win over the Western Bulldogs.
Hopefully some people took the $5.50 last week for Port to win the minor premiership, as a win this Thursday against Geelong will the Power on top of the ladder.
Zak Butters enhanced his Brownlow credentials with a best on ground performance once again. His form will be paramount to the success of Port Adelaide later this season.
Everything is working for Port and it’s hard to find a hole in their game. Have they peaked too soon?
If the belief is there for Port to win the minor premiership, the $3.50 now is good value, as if they triumph over Geelong on Thursday, the Power will shorten again.
BRISBANE LIONS – 4th (8-4)
How are Brisbane going to win the flag if they can’t win at the MCG?
The Lions have now lost 13 of their past 14 matches at the ‘G and if the ladder was set for the finals right now, they would need to play at least two finals there to win the premiership.
That is Brisbane’s biggest concern right now. Anywhere else they are fine.
The Lions have six more games at the Gabba this season against Sydney, Richmond, Geelong, West Coast, Adelaide and St Kilda.
Five wins of those six is the minimum for the Lions to guarantee a top four spot and at least one home final.
The game against Sydney this Friday is a tricky one as the Lions have lost seven of their last eight against the Swans at the Gabba.
The $3.25 for the Lions to miss the top four now actually looks tempting.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – JUNE 03: Gary Rohan of the Cats celebrates kicking a goal during the round 12 AFL match between Western Bulldogs and Geelong Cats at Marvel Stadium, on June 03, 2023, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
GEELONG CATS – 9th (6-6)
Geelong had a much-needed bye last weekend and the Cats injury list is still long, but Patrick Dangerfield and Mitch Duncan should return this week which helps their midfield immensely.
Unfortunately for the reigning premiers they run head first into a Power team that has won 10 straight, while the Cats are 3-7 post bye since 2013.
A loss on the weekend for Geelong could have them two games outside of the top eight.
The price to win the flag ($10) seems far too short given that possible scenario, as the $2.75 to miss the eight is now more likely.
ESSENDON BOMBERS – 6th (8-5)
6,856 days since Essendon won a final (as of June 13).
Could 2023 be the year that the Bombers win a final? It will be near enough to 6,950 by the time week one of the finals rolls around.
The addition of Peter Wright finally gave Essendon a proper target up forward and with his five goals against Carlton on Sunday night it looked as if Essendon, for the first time in a long time, were complete as a team.
What was most impressive about the win for Essendon was Zach Merrett only had 18 disposals and Darcy Parish didn’t play. Essendon can win without those two needing to impact.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2023 and run towards the finals for Essendon, they have games against Sydney, West Coast, North Melbourne, Adelaide (in Melbourne) and GWS.
Win all of those and would leave the Bombers on 13 wins and surely that sees Essendon play in September.
Taylor Walker of the Crows surrounded by teammates after a goal during Round 13. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images
ADELAIDE CROWS – 7th (7-6)
Beating West Coast by 122 points is something that will be glossed over quickly, but kicking 27 goals in a game is something that can’t be undersold regardless of the opposition.
14 goals at half time, 13 in the second half. The Crows put the foot on the throat and pushed harder and West Coast had no answers.
The Crows are now ranked first in the AFL for points scored in 2023 and the huge percentage boost could come in handy late in the season.
The Crows have the bye before a mouth-watering clash against Collingwood at the MCG next Sunday. A win there could stamp the Crows as finals, if not premiership contenders.
Also, shout out to the Big Texan, kicking 10 goals in game 250 is pretty impressive!
WESTERN BULLDOGS – 8th (7-6)
What are the Western Bulldogs as a football club?
The Dogs never looked likely to beat Port on Friday night at Marvel Stadium and slipped to eighth on the ladder with a third consecutive loss.
Wins this season have come against Brisbane, Richmond, Fremantle, Hawthorn, GWS, Carlton and Adelaide.
Port Adelaide have beaten them twice, St Kilda and Melbourne handily took care of them, while losses to Geelong and Gold Coast should have been wins.
With an average score of just 78 points per game, with a midfield that has Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Smith delivering the footy to a forward line that has Aaron Naughton, Jamara Ugle-Hagan and Rory Lobb in it isn’t good enough.
Nor is Cody Weightman’s flopping or Arthur Jones not being able to get a possession in an entire game as a small forward.
The Western Bulldogs are C+ football team: adequate but nothing special.
If you can find a ‘to miss top eight’ market on the Bulldogs, it’s likely decent value at this point.
Jye Amiss of the Dockers kicks on goal. Picture: Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images
FREMANTLE DOCKERS – 10th (6-6)
Fremantle’s past month of hard work came crashing down with a thud on Saturday against Richmond.
After three consecutive wins against the odds, Fremantle were expected to roll through Richmond at Optus Stadium and end the weekend in the top eight. But now Freo find themselves on the outside looking in with some work to do.
Of Fremantle’s remaining 11 games, only one of them looks an assured win (against the Eagles).
The next three weeks will give everyone a great insight into Fremantle and their place in the 2023 season.
GWS in Sydney, Essendon at home and the Western Bulldogs in Melbourne.
Win all three and top eight finish and finals should be in Fremantle’s hands.
If you think they will lose at least two of the three, $1.72 to miss the finals is a gift.
ST KILDA SAINTS – 5th (8-4)
St Kilda found a way to win against the Swans on Thursday night in Sydney and record their first win against Sydney at the SCG in 14 years.
That win solidified St Kilda’s position in the top eight, with teams all around them losing over the weekend.
It feels almost impossible for the Saints to miss the top eight from here, but just 12 months ago, St Kilda was 8-4 and ended up missing the finals.
The positive for Saints is Max King will get better and better with more footy under his belt; 11 goals in his three games so far is a great return.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Mitch Owens have improved out of sight and Callum Wilke is in line to be an All-Australian fullback. Those three were not at this level last season and will be integral in the Saints run home.
Still not sold on them, but if they can take care of Richmond this weekend they surely feature in September.
Noah Anderson of the Suns in action. Picture: Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images
GOLD COAST SUNS – 11th (6-6)
SYDNEY SWANS – 13th (5-7)
RICHMOND TIGERS – 12th (5-7-1)
For Gold Coast, Sydney and Richmond a top eight finish looks extremely unlikely as of right now.
Gold Coast must win against Carlton this weekend to keep their slim chances of finals alive.
The Swans likely blew their season against St Kilda on Thursday and have to face Brisbane at the Gabba on Friday.
Richmond will be a scary team to face for most teams late in the season especially when Tom Lynch returns. But they are too far off the pace having lost seven games already.
The Blues look dejected after losing. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images
GWS GIANTS – 14th (5-8)
CARLTON BLUES – 15th (4-8-1)
HAWTHORN HAWKS – 16th (4-9)
For Carlton, GWS and Hawthorn, they are in no man‘s land.
Carlton have lost eight of its past nine and it is hard to see them turning it around this weekend against Gold Coast.
GWS are somehow a good team, yet not at all good at the same time.
The Hawks are no easy beats, but some weeks they will scare you and other weeks they will be beaten by 40 points. Of note: they have won more games in their past 20 than Carlton.
NORTH MELBOURNE – 17th (2-11)
North Melbourne will run second last and will win a game or two this season (how good is Wardlaw?), West Coast will win fewest wins. They are not an AFL standard team at the moment.
(Also, leave Oscar Allen at full forward)
LEAST WINS 2023
[all odds as of June 13]
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