Another Match, another 2 points dropped. How did it happen this time?
Stop me if you have heard this one before – Toronto FC score an early goal and fails to hold onto the lead. Toronto has 10 draws out of 18 matches, leaving the team with a paltry 19 points on the season. While that record is not great, Toronto sit 12th out of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and still only 3 points out of a playoff spot.
What becomes more frustrating is to look at these 10 draws so far – 5 of these matches had Toronto in the lead after the first half. On average, the opposing teams score the tying goal around the 73rd minute. Perhaps there’s a worrying trend developing. Maybe the team is too tired to defend for the final 15 minutes of the match.
Saturday’s match was similar, as Toronto FC was winning after Lorenzo Insigne’s trademark tiraggiro in the 38th minute. However, TFC soon regressed to the mean and gave up a goal in the 69th minute after a series of calamitous events. Here’s the goal:
The Build Up
Up until the goal sequence Toronto was playing fairly competent football. However, it was evident there were some issues defending around the 60th minute as Nashville was applying more pressure. Nashville coach Gary Smith made two substitutions in the 58th minute, bringing Randall Leal on for Alex Muyl and Fafa Picault for Jacob Shaffelburg. These subs seemed to have an immediate impact as there were a number of close calls on net, including Teal Bunbury’s shot ringing off of the post:
Notice the errant pass that Insigne tries to play into space. Perhaps not the greatest choice by Lorenzo on that play.
Bunbury has another shot go off of the post a few minutes later. Bunbury’s chance is possible due to another turnover, this time on behalf of Jonathan Osorio:
Toronto, having the lead, reverted to the kick-and-chase strategy. The ball was played up the middle from a Sean Johnson restart. CJ Sapong tried to control the ball, but ended up turning the ball over to Nashville defender.
The Goal
After gaining possession from Toronto, Nashville had a 20 pass sequence leading to Mukhtar’s shot. Their switch of play across the field was particularly effective.
The ball was played up the wing to Bunbury, who chips it into the box to Hany Mukhtar. Mukhtar almost scores – Aimé Mabika is in the right spot and provides a goal line clearance.
The ball flies out to Bernardeschi. In his defense, the ball is not an easy one to control as it is coming at him around shoulder height. He tries to control it, but gives it up Dax McCarty, who slides it to Randall Leal. What is not defendable is the lack of Berna’s effort. He could have chased Leal, but gave up too easily. He watch Leal make a turn and take the shot.
Johnson misreads the shot and the ball hits his hands, deflects to his right, and rolls in the net.
What Went Wrong
The shot wasn’t particularly hard. It was dipping and curling to the right, which seemed to fool Sean Johnson and prevented him from getting a good handle on the ball. Perhaps he was caught between a catch and a punch. Either way, it was a costly miscue.
Look familiar? – Here’s Alex Bono against Inter Miami last year:
Jean Mota scores from almost the exact same spot as Randall Leal!
In both instances, the ball was mishandled by the keeper, which is the obvious error on the play. However, take a look at where the Toronto FC defenders are when the shots are taken. The defenders are, on average, five yards away from the shooter. In essence, it’s allowing for an open shot on net and not closing down on the ball. Poor goalkeeping combined with poor defending rarely results in a win.
Here’s a point to consider – Goals minus expected Goals (G-xG). A negative number is better. It means the keeper conceded fewer goals than expected.
- Johnson’s G-xG for TFC in 2023 is +1.54.
- Bono’s G-xG for TFC in 2022 was -0.64.
What Needs to Happen Next
It seems to be the same problem every week – Bob needs to make more substitutions – early and often!
The BradleyBall game management formula was employed once again in this match – use the high press in the first half to create chances. The 2023 version of “Bradley Ball,” with Toronto’s current personnel, is successful for about 60 minutes. After minute 60, players get tired and cannot employ the high press effectively. Saturday’s starting lineup had an average age of almost 28 years old, and that included two 20-year-olds. It was obvious there were no fresh legs on the pitch as they were employing the kick-and-chase strategy. CJ Sapong was not particularly effective in playing the hold-up No. 9 position and easily gave away possession.
While Bob made a substitution in the 67th minute (Marshall-Rutty for Kerr), too many tired players were left out on the pitch. The aforementioned Sapong was still on the pitch and played the full 90 minutes. With Akinola and Perruzza on the bench, why would Bob leave the 34 year old Sapong out for the whole match?
Also, 31 year old Jonathan Osorio was returning to the lineup after being absent since April 22nd, which was almost 50 days. That length of time is a troubling number, as it’s indicative of a wider problem with player injury management (read more about that idea here – Why does Toronto FC have so many Injuries). Bob left Osorio out until the 90th minute when Kosi Thompson came on the pitch. Why leave a player out for almost the whole match if fitness is an issue?
When the team gets tired, Bernardeschi and Insigne try to do too much. They hold onto the ball, try to dribble around the opposing team, and often get dispossessed. It is easy to understand where their frustration is coming from – the lack of legitimate support from the bench when the team needs it most – in the final 30 minutes of the match. The question arises: does Bob refuse to use subs earlier because he doesn’t have confidence in them, or are these players not good enough?
Toronto kept pace with Nashville, which is an objectively good team. After Saturday’s draw, Nashville currently sits 2nd in MLS and the Eastern Conference – eight points behind FC Cincinnati. Toronto travel to Cincinnati on Saturday. Will Bob use more subs? He’ll certainly need them against the best team in the league right now.