Round 9 Talking Points, analysis, reaction, results, wrap, highlights, Harley Reid Cup between Hawks, Roos and Eagles, Carlton off-field problems

There are three terrible teams then the rest in this AFL campaign, creating a mid-season tournament for the clear No.1 prospect.

Plus Carlton’s on-field issues spill off the field, a bold Bomber trade call that could save their list and much more.

The big issues from Round 9 of the 2023 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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‘BLIGHT ON THE SEASON’ THAT’S NOT SO BAD… AND THE HARLEY REID CUP IT CREATES

The 2023 AFL season is a two-speed league.

In the top 15, we have the true contenders and a bunch of teams that can challenge anyone on their day – all the way down to the 14th-placed Swans (well, when they’re not injury-ravaged) and 15th-placed Giants (who’ve been competitive every week bar this one). All but GWS have a percentage above 97 (so they’re basically average or better)

Then there’s the bottom three. North Melbourne, West Coast and Hawthorn share four wins between them – two came against each other – plus a horrific percentage around 60.

These teams are bad. Very bad; they lost by a combined 194 points in Round 9. And those blowout losses are becoming a weekly problem.

“They’re (the Hawks) one of three just ultimately dreadful teams playing football in 2023, and they might be the best of the three,” veteran journalist Damian Barrett said on the Sunday Footy Show.

“Essendon has got the benefit of playing West Coast and North Melbourne twice in the course of the season, they come in consecutive weeks (in Rounds 11 and 12, and Rounds 21 and 22), and you’d think that’s just a guaranteed 16 premiership points.

“It is historically as bad as it’s been.”

Port Adelaide champion Kane Cornes added: “This threatens to derail the season somewhat because you’ve got three out of the nine games (each weekend) effectively ruined, when they don’t play each other.”

But while ex-Richmond and Bulldogs star Nathan Brown protested “that’s the way the game is – you’re always going to have sides down the bottom that are easy to beat, you’re always going to have sides up the top, it’s just the nature of the game,” it is uncommon to have three terrible teams instead of just one or two.

While their percentages will change over the course of the season – especially with more games to come against each other – as it stands, we’ve never had a terrible trio like Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast in the AFL era.

TEAMS WITH A PERCENTAGE BELOW 65 (Final home & away ladder, AFL era)

2 teams – 2022 (West Coast, North Melbourne), 2018 (Gold Coast, Carlton), 2016 (Brisbane, Essendon), 2013 (Melbourne, GWS), 2012 (Gold Coast, GWS), 2011 (Port Adelaide, Gold Coast)

1 team – 2020 (Adelaide), 2019 (Gold Coast), 2015 (Carlton), 2014 (St Kilda), 2008 (Melbourne), 1997 (Melbourne), 1996 (Fitzroy), 1995 (Fitzroy), 1993 (Sydney), 1992 (Brisbane Bears)

No teams – 2021, 2017, 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1994, 1991, 1990

Currently in 2023: North Melbourne (62.9%), West Coast (60.5%), Hawthorn (60%)

So nobody can deny there’s a problem. But that doesn’t mean it’s ruining the season as a whole.

This is where the double-ups come into play – the six teams every AFL club plays twice – to turn a 17-game season where everyone plays each other to the 23-game campaign we actually see.

The league tries to balance the season by giving better teams a harder fixture and vice versa; the double-ups are the main mechanism for this.

As mentioned above Essendon gets four more games against members of the terrible trio – the Eagles twice, and the Kangaroos twice. This makes some sense, because the Bombers were a bottom-six team last year and were given an easier fixture to make up for it.

But they’re not the only team to earn this benefit. Two 2022 top-six teams get it, Fremantle (Hawthorn and West Coast twice) and Melbourne (playing Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice), plus a middle-six team St Kilda (playing Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice), and another bottom-six team in North Melbourne (playing Hawthorn and West Coast).

As you can see, the teams that happened to draw the Hawks have cashed in, because they’ve fallen off a cliff from last year’s mediocre-but-eight-win side to this year’s wooden spoon contender.

This is where there’s a flaw in the system. Most experts thought the Hawks would slide but you never know who’s going to rise and fall, so some teams’ fixtures are going to be harder than others.

But it’s a flaw we have to accept if we’re going to have two blockbusters between big teams and/or local rivals every week. If we’re not changing the fixture to be purely about equality – say, everyone plays each other over the first 17 rounds, and then the ladder at that stage dictates the last six rounds – we have to cop problems.

Put it this way: if we want two derbies or Carlton-Collingwoods a year, we also have to cop situations like last year, when Geelong played both North Melbourne and West Coast twice.

We don’t think changing the double-up system so that all the top-six teams played each other twice next year (and so on) would help either – that’d just mean we’re not guaranteed derby double-ups and give bad teams an unfairly huge advantage.

But back to the facts at hand. Five teams have the advantage of getting two of the Hawks/Roos/Eagles twice this year – but that’s a better scenario than usual, isn’t it?

Last year Adelaide, Geelong and Gold Coast all got a big advantage over the rest of the league, playing the Roos and Eagles twice. So that’s three teams with an edge; this year it’s five.

Isn’t that preferable? The more teams with an advantage, the less of an advantage it is, after all.

There’s one other mini-benefit to three teams being terrible – the mini-tournament it has created over the rest of the season for the rights to the near-certain No.1 pick, Harley Reid, who one recruiter told Foxsports.com.au was the best prospect he’d ever seen.

Unfortunately Reid suffered a head knock during Saturday’s clash between the Australian under-18 team and Carlton’s VFL side, but that’s not expected to impact his draft hopes.

Realistically the Hawks, Roos and Eagles are the only contenders for the wooden spoon (and thus the No.1 pick) left, because the team in 15th has three wins with a very solid percentage, and it’s hard to imagine all of them winning four or more games.

And it just so happens that they have a series of games left against each other…

The Harley Reid Cup

Round 10: Hawthorn vs West Coast, UTAS Stadium

Round 18: North Melbourne vs Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium

Round 20: West Coast vs North Melbourne, Optus Stadium

These fixtures are very interesting because the Kangaroos have the advantage of an extra win in the bank, but the Hawks and Eagles have the advantage of games where they’ll be clear favourite because of home ground advantage.

Of course there’s always a chance that one of these teams upsets one of the top 15, but otherwise those three games should determine the wooden spoon.

And where Reid should be looking at property.

‘SHEER DISRESPECT’: ‘DREADFUL’ COMMENTS BLEW UP BLUES… BUT A KEY FIGURE’S RESPONSE SET THINGS STRAIGHT

It was Carlton’s turn across the past week to stand under the AFL world spotlight.

It’s a position, though, the Blues and their fans are familiar with, for the Carlton implosion has seemingly become an annual sideshow. It all inevitably blows up amid the team’s lack of success – which is the core issue here, really – and, consequently, the fanbases’ impatience.

The 2023 version – possibly Part A, there’s still many rounds left – began on the field – as it usually always does – last weekend with a poor performance against Brisbane. It was Carlton’s third loss to a finals contender in the past four weeks.

After falling 0.6 per cent short of a finals berth last year then beginning the 2023 season with ample hope thanks to three wins and a draw, the setbacks had Blues fans, again, in doomsday mode.

That wasn’t helped by the messaging out of the club both before and after the loss to Brisbane. Club chief executive Brian Cook told 3AW pre-game it “wouldn’t be the end of the world” if the club didn’t make the finals, while young midfielder Adam Cerra a few days later told reporters it was “not a failure” if the Blues didn’t feature in September.

Granted the question to Cook was the last in a very long interview, while 23-year-old Cerra probably wasn’t the right Carlton player to front the media after the loss to the Lions. 

But for an impatient fanbase with high expectations, the comments clearly irked the majority of Carlton’s supporters and led to ample media commentary throughout the week.

The half-glass empty Carlton narrative then reached its crescendo on Friday when billionaire Carlton powerbroker Bruce Mathieson unloaded on the Blues. Mathieson is renowned for his forthrightness in the media about his club, but this was extreme even by his standards.

Speaking to the Herald Sun, Mathieson lashed Carlton’s “weak” board for choosing Michael Voss as coach over Ross Lyon before taking aim at Cook, president Luke Sayers and football boss Brad Lloyd, declaring the club was “run pathetically”.

“Even Cooky, I thought he might be OK. But when you sit down and look at it, he was controlled by Frank Costa under his regime at Geelong,” Mathieson told the Herald Sun.

“And Cooky was lucky – he had Frank Costa as his boss, who guided him on every decision he ever made. He’s made no decisions at Carlton.”

A far-from-ideal addition to the Blues firestorm ahead of a crunch game against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday.

Speaking on SEN’s Crunch Time, veteran broadcaster Gerard Whateley joked there were a few Carlton people that are “happy to set the world on fire just for the sport of it”, before adding: “If you boil Mathieson’s comments down – and I don’t know whether he is a powerbroker still or not – those are the words of a talkback caller.

“Just the sheer disrespect to Brian Cook and all that he’s done in footy, that’s the stuff that you just throw away. It’s easy to say and it doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny whatsoever.

“Just a dreadful thing and no footy credibility in that comment (about Cook) at all but held up as having footy cred.”

On the same day Mathieson’s comments were published, Sayers wrote on Twitter: “If this week showed one thing, it’s that no other club evokes such emotion, such passion, such deep connection … Expectation is a privilege.”

That emotion was on full display at half-time on Saturday night when Blues fans booed their team – who’d kicked just 1.4 against the Bulldogs across the first two quarters – for a second straight week before a remarkable six-goal blitz that saw the Blues take the lead in the final term.

Ultimately an efficient Bulldogs outfit – which is arguably in the same middle-of-the-road pack as the Blues – had more run and polish late to close out victory. But the second-half surge was enough for Voss to suggest the Blues showed “massive improvement” in key areas of their game.

You can imagine, though, that attitude mightn’t cut it with Carlton supporters.

But Lloyd on Sunday took an important PR step when he was asked to respond to Mathieson’s criticism of him and others, as well as the club’s passion to make finals.

While strongly defending the club’s board and administration – “I couldn’t feel more supported and the club is in really good shape” – he firmly declared making the finals has to be the club’s goal this year.

“We are here to play finals,” Lloyd said on SEN’s Crunch Time. “We think we have got the personnel, the structure and resources.

“We want to play finals, that is our focus and we think we have got all we need to do that.”

Voss said the stinging criticism in the lead-up to Saturday night’s loss was impossible to ignore. But stressed the club’s attitude was “eyes down, it’s eyes in and we’ve got to go again”.

“It’s hard not to (listen to it) when it’s surrounding you. But for us the answer is not looking external, it’s looking internal,” he told reporters.

“What we get to be able to control is what we do and how we train and how we turn up and how we get better and how we execute in those moments.”

BOLD TRADE STRATEGY THAT WOULD HELP DONS FIX ‘BIGGEST WEAKNESS’

Essendon has clearly taken steps forward under coach Brad Scott so far this season, but some defensive issues still loom.

And a club legend believes a bold trade idea could help the Bombers address their “biggest weakness”.

That trade suggestion was allowing or encouraging ball magnet Darcy Parish to exercise his free agency rights at season’s end and join a rival club.

It would be a courageous call, for Parish entered the weekend ranked second in the AFL for disposals and clearances, fourth for inside 50s and contested possessions.

Yet while the Bombers are scoring more in 2022, particularly from turnover, they still ranked 14th for points against, 17th for applying pressure, 18th for defending ball movement ahead of Round 9.

A lot of Essendon’s defensive concerns are based around the team learning and executing a system in. But Geelong’s Tom Hawkins (8 goals) and Brisbane’s Joe Daniher (6) have got hold of the Essendon backline, which has been missing key backman Jayden Laverde.

Following the Bombers’ fourth consecutive loss, Lloyd said the Bombers should consider bolstering their defence by targeting the best player possible at the trade table – which would clearly come at a cost.

“Do they let go of Darcy Parish and go after, in a trade, a gun centre half-back?” Lloyd asked on Channel 9’s The Sunday Footy Show.

“So say (the Bombers suggest): ‘We can let go of a midfielder, because we’re not too bad in that area … Can we target (a club) that desperately needs a midfielder, but will give you that centre half-back?’”

When it was put to Lloyd that Parish has arguably been in career-best form this season, the triple Coleman Medallist replied: “These guys are much more replaceable than you think, in my opinion. He has kicked one goal this year.

“Start at the top (of the key defender tree) because I think it’s their biggest weakness at the moment.”

Easier said than done, though.

The top of the key defensive tree would be star Sam Taylor, who’s contracted to the Giants at the club until the end of the 2025. Premiership Demon Jake Lever is locked away until 2024.

Suns backman Charlie Ballard – the league’s top intercept mark player – Carlton star Jacob Weitering and Richmond’s Noah Balta are all contracted to their respective clubs until the end of 2025, while the Lions two years ago re-signed Jack Payne until the end of 2024.

There’s no way the Bombers are luring Darcy Moore away from Collingwood, while Tom Barrass looks destined for big leadership roles at the Eagles. Veteran Jeremy McGovern has reportedly agreed to an extension that’ll help West Coast be aggressive on the trade market.

Could Geelong’s Esava Ratugolea be an option? He received ample interest from Port Adelaide last year but was ultimately held to his contract by the Cats. Since then, Ratugolea has become a mainstay of Geelong’s backline and become one of the league’s top intercept defenders.

Ratugolea remains unsigned beyond this year and has put off talks until the back-end of the season. The Cats will clearly be keen to retain his services, but rivals will be clubs keen.

But considering the Bombers already have Jordan Riley, Kaine Baldwin, Jayden Laverde, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Jake Kelly, Zach Reid, Nik Cox and Lewis Hayes on their list, the Bombers might back their key defensive unit to improve.

Perhaps Essendon could look to a hybrid defender to help out. Port Adelaide’s in-form backman Miles Bergman might be an option.

Bergman continued his hot form and career-best season against North Melbourne on Saturday, finishing with 21 disposals, 11 intercepts, 10 marks, eight score involvements and 588m gained.

“He’s become a weapon. In the space of eight games, he’s really weaponised his kicking,” Brownlow Medallist Gerard Healy told Fox Footy.

“He’s almost at the level now that he needs to be stopped and tagged.”

The Sandringham Dragons product recently said he felt more comfortable at Alberton after initially struggling with homesickness.

But still unsigned beyond this year and keen to address his contract later in the year, Bergman, 21, now looms as one of the most in-demand players come the end of the season.

And Victorian clubs are reportedly circling. Whether the Bombers are part of that circle already – or will join it soon – remains to be seen.

SHREWD TIGER TACTICS PAY OFF… AND SHOW WHAT THEY’VE BEEN MISSING

The Tigers’ defence was expected to be an issue coming into the season – especially in terms of a lack of depth. And with Robbie Tarrant yet to play a game in 2023, and Nathan Broad playing just his fifth last Friday night, that depth has been exposed.

But what a fifth it was, with Broad limiting Geelong superstar Jeremy Cameron’s impact and helping inspire a major upset over the reigning premiers.

While Cameron had 21 disposals (four inside 50), nine marks and six score involvements, he added just the one goal – while Broad compiled 19 disposals, seven marks, 11 intercepts and five intercept marks.

It was his versatility and footy smarts that allowed him to win the battle, and thus the war, according to Fox Footy’s experts.

“Nathan Broad at the right time would drop off him, he’d go back and help Noah Balta, let Jeremy Cameron get up the ground at stoppage – and it’s a great result,” Garry Lyon said.

Jordan Lewis responded: “You back your system in and you understand what your strengths are. So if you’re Nathan Broad, your strength isn’t in and around the stoppage. You back your midfielders in to try and absorb that pressure from Cameron, force him further up the field.

“And we speak about the way Broad was able to defend – and it’s a lot of the stuff you can’t see, your behind the goal vision. He’s so versatile, so he can play on Cameron one week and then the smaller forward the next week.

“He was huge; he played his position and his opponent perfectly.”

North Melbourne champion David King declared Cameron had looked “impotent” offensively in a way he hadn’t seen before.

“Broad’s match up with Jeremy, he just wasn’t a threat, even in the forward-50,” King told SEN’s Crunch Time.

“I haven’t seen him look so impotent in the forward half of the ground.

“He (Broad) gave him some opportunities 60-70 metres from goal but nothing really close to goal.

“I couldn’t stop watching that battle.

“Damien (Hardwick) touched on it in the post-match he said ‘you know he missed four weeks and you look at the type of player that he plays on, that player’s got us in all those games and they end up being losses’.”

To Hardwick’s point, the Tigers proved unable to stop players like Jacob Van Rooyen (three goals in Q4 for Melbourne in Round 6), Tom Papley (six goals for Sydney in Round 5), Aaron Naughton (three goals for the Bulldogs in Round 4) and Jamie Elliott (two goals in a low-scoring Collingwood win in Round 3).

Given Broad’s versatility he certainly would’ve limited some of those goals – and perhaps swung the results in the process.

He’s going to be vital if Richmond wants to recover from its 1-5-1 start to play finals. Already they’ve won consecutive games, placing them just a win and a half outside of the top eight after Round 9.

They’re still going to need to win nine or 10 of their last 14 matches to play finals, but that’s doable.

EAGLES DEMOLITION RAISES SIMMO QUESTION ONCE MORE

West Coast’s horrid 2023 season has plumbed new depths once more, with a 70-point loss to Gold Coast – the Suns’ biggest ever win on the road.

To cap it off, the Eagles suffered another addition to their already-overflowing injury list, with Jack Darling suffering a fractured forearm.

It’ll likely keep him on the sidelines for up to two months, with the Eagles now genuinely struggling to field a full team.

At this point the Eagles’ injuries have created a death loop of problems.

Because their injuries mean they’ve got a limited list, they have to play guys who aren’t quite 100 per cent, or squeeze more game-time out of them when they instead need to be managed. That in turn means the underdone players are more likely to get injured/re-injured, which limits their options again.

Injuries, however, can only go so far when presented with what took place in the second quarter on Saturday night.

That quarter saw the Suns kick 8.5 to 1.2, win clearances 14-3, contested possessions 43-16 and inside 50s 17-4.

It was a devastating 30-minute patch in front of just over 36,000 fans.

There were positives aplenty for the Suns – Matt Rowell and Charlie Ballard key among them – but the Eagles are in all sorts.

It has once again raised questions about the future of coach Adam Simpson, who is now more than four seasons past the 2018 premiership and into his 10th season at the helm.

Simpson is contracted until the end of 2024, but West Coast’s next flag tilt is clearly well beyond that finish line.

A difficult decision looms for both parties, but the silver lining is this year’s bleak season could fast track discussions and clarity on the next steps.

“I think what it’ll do, it’ll fast track the conversation. The conversation now is, ‘Is it Simpson?’ That’s the only conversation,” Simpson’s premiership teammate at North Melbourne, David King, said on SEN’s Crunch Time.

“I think if you’re Adam Simpson you’d be thinking ’OK, this is what we’ve got, we’re exposing the full list here and we’re seeing what pick 30 looks like, what pick 45 looks like, what pick 60 looks like’.

“They’re seeing the whole list, not hidden – there’s no massaging of numbers because their senior core players are out – they are just ‘Go and catch and kill your own.’”

There have been positives, with Reuben Ginbey a clear standout, but the overall picture should be cause for a conversation, King flagged.

“I think Simmo will sit back and say ’OK, is this for me? Is this really what I want to do for the next three years?’,” King said.

“Or, will there be another opportunity, or is it time to pause, have a year off, refresh, wait for the next opportunity, which I think is incredibly healthy for these guys in this highly stressed environment that they’re in and just cut the cord?

“They’ve been great for each other, West Coast and Adam Simpson, and maybe it’s time to shake hands and have a smile and say ‘Right, good luck with your next opportunity, wish you well.’”

A clash against fellow strugglers Hawthorn has come at a fascinating time.