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There are 10 runners set to go to post for this five-furlong handicap (19:10), the most valuable race on Monday’s evening card at Windsor with over £15,000 on offer to the winner.
Swayze (110) tops the field on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings having produced a career-best effort to regain the winning thread at Haydock a few weeks ago. That was an impressive performance as he turned what looked a competitive handicap into a procession, leading on the bridle two furlongs out and gradually drawing clear from there to win by three lengths in an excellent time. The manner of that victory suggests he was full value for a 7 lb rise in the weights and another big run seems assured in his follow-up bid.
Mountain Peak (109) also features on a good mark, lining up from 4 lb lower than when scoring at Ascot last July. Admittedly, he’s been a long way below that form in two starts this season, but this is a weaker race and his overall profile suggests he’s the type to bounce back before too long.
Similar comments apply to Equality (107), who will find this much easier than the Group races he’s been running in this season. It’s worth putting a line through his run in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last time, having little chance from stall 1 in a race where the low numbers were at a big disadvantage. Back in a handicap today, he has the ‘Horse For Course’ Flag to denote that he is very effective under these conditions, though it’s likely to require a career best for him to gain a second victory over course and distance, still 8 lb higher in the weights than when scoring at Haydock in September.
Charlie Hills also saddles May Sonic (105), who was successful on his sole previous visit to Windsor back in July 2020. He’s been an infrequent runner on turf in the interim and the balance of his form suggests he’s a better horse on the all-weather. He’s been disappointing on his last two starts at Newcastle, though, and it’s hard to see him defying this sort of mark back on turf.
The three-year-old Democracy Dilemma (108) enjoyed a productive start to the year on the all-weather and he showed improved form back on turf when winning at Thirsk in April, keeping going well to land the spoils by a length and a half having been prominent throughout. Though unable to match that form in two subsequent starts, he was better than the bare result when finishing fifth at Epsom last time, doing well to be beaten only three and a quarter lengths having been stuck out on the far wing. He is 1 lb lower in the weights today and not without each-way claims.
Dream Composer (107) is another leading player having not been seen to best effect when trying to complete a hat-trick at Goodwood last time. Beaten two lengths at the line, he looked unlucky not to finish closer still having met trouble when going well two furlongs out, only getting a gap when it was too late. He certainly shaped as if still in top form and is well worth another chance to show that he remains fairly treated.
Bedford Flyer (106) has shown enough in two starts for Mick Appleby (formerly trained by Les Eyre) to suggest he too is on a good mark, especially with his yard in better form now than it has been for much of the season. He was beaten less than two lengths when finishing sixth in a big-field handicap at York last time, only weakening in the final furlong. He lines up here from a 1 lb lower mark and should be winning races for his new yard sooner rather than later.
Fernando Rah (106) and Isle of Lismore (106) are a couple of others to consider with solid course form in the book. Fernando Rah possibly did too much too soon when finishing sixth at Kempton last time, so the drop back to five furlongs looks a good move now returned to turf for the first time since he filled the runner-up spot over this course and distance in August 2021.
As for Isle of Lismore, he won a similar event here 12 months ago and his latest runner-up finish (beaten half a length) at Newmarket last month suggests he can still be competitive from a BHA mark of 83.
The field is completed by Night On Earth (104), who is yet to fully fire in four starts this season, albeit he passed the post just a length and a quarter behind the winner when finishing last of four in a similar event over this course and distance on his penultimate outing.
Timeform Analyst’s Verdict:
Swayze turned a Haydock handicap into a one-sided affair 18 days ago, and with that performance backed up by a healthy timefigure, he may well be able to shrug off a 7 lb rise. This is a good-quality contest though, with Dream Composer and Bedford Flyer a couple of potential threats.
Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings:
110 Swayze
109 Mountain Peak
108 Democracy Dilemma
107 Dream Composer
107 Equality
106 Bedford Flyer
106 Fernando Rah
106 Isle of Lismore
105 May Sonic
104 Night On Earth
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