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AFL Round 13 Predictions:

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The second split round of 2023 opens in Sydney on Thursday evening and builds all the way up to the annual King’s Birthday holiday fixture between ladder leaders Collingwood and top-four challengers Melbourne at the MCG, which best betting sites anticipate could be one of the closest in years!

To add to the festivities, the AFL have created a new marquee fixture between century-old rivals Carlton and Essendon on the Sunday night of the long weekend in a bid to make this a round that even King Charles himself would pay attention to!

Should the Pies slip up on Monday, we anticipate that Round 13 will be ending with two clubs tied at the top of the ladder on 44 points apiece – and that kicks off our four best bets for the upcoming week.

Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide Power, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)

Some determined defensive efforts were the foundation of the Western Bulldogs (W7 L5) collecting seven wins in an eight-game period despite topping 100+ points on just one occasion, but the sole exception came in South Australia against Port Adelaide Power (W10 L2).

But for two weeks running they have conceded greater than their season average of 75 points against two clubs beneath them on the ladder going into this round, which is of great concern with top-two Port and Collingwood to come in their next four assignments.

For four straight weeks the Dogs have had a goalkicking accuracy of 50% or worse, leaving them with the second-worst accuracy (89.7%) of the league going into this round. 

Their forwards are going to have to be right on top of their game against the unforgiving form team of the competition.

Port Adelaide fly over to Melbourne with nine wins on the spin, six in which they covered the pre-match line, and a perfect eight wins from eight games at Marvel Stadium that completely negates any Western Bulldogs home advantage. On that basis, they should come out too strong.

New recruit Willie Rioli has been getting busy in front of goal since being held goalless by the Bulldogs, accruing four multiple-goal hauls in his last five games, and the 3.7 Unibet are offering for him to do it again looks remarkably generous.

Tip: Port Adelaide By 1-39 Points – 2.4 With PlayUp

Value Play: Junior Rioli To Kick 2+ Goals – 3.7 With Unibet

Adelaide Crows v West Coast Eagles, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

The Adelaide Crows (W6 L6) are the next side fortunate enough to be facing a severely crippled West Coast Eagles (W1 L11), who this week added star ruckman Nic Naitanui to an injury list that during the week topped 20 players – almost enough to fill a matchday squad!

As the fifth-worst defence in the competition going into this round, Adelaide will relish the opportunity to be the bullies and perhaps notch up their fifth 100+ score of the season – particularly as the previous four came in victory. But it would not surprise if they leak a few goals in return.

AFL betting sites have understandably set another massive line for this game, and are asking the Crows to rack up a winning margin that they have managed just once since the beginning of 2020.

There were signs that the Eagles are beginning to tighten things up a fraction defensively, conceding more than four goals in a quarter just once in the previous fortnight.

However, the loss of Shannon Hurn to injury during the week will just make things more difficult for a side that have failed to cover the line in nine of their last 10 games.

It could be a profitable day for Adelaide’s Darcy Fogarty, who in Darwin last week picked up a bag of 3+ goals for the fourth time from 10 appearances this year. 

The Evens available on Bluebet is far more competitive than similar Aussie bookmakers.

Tip: Adelaide -59.5 points – 1.9 With Bet365

Value Play: Darcy Fogarty to kick 3+ goals – 2.0 With Bluebet

Fremantle Dockers v Richmond Tigers, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)

They couldn’t get Sean Darcy back from injury for this one after a week off, but Fremantle Dockers (W6 L5) will still be confident of collecting their seventh win of the season and potentially even jumping into the eight if other results go their way!

Their four-game winning streak now includes some impressive scalps (Melbourne and Geelong) who are both likely to join them in the finals, should they get there, and after a sluggish start to the season they look to be recapturing some of their best form.

They’ll know to be wary of the wounded Richmond Tigers (W4 D1 L7) who were on the right end of a third consecutive thriller last week, with their win just their fifth game of the season to clear the total points handicap.

That’s what has piqued our interest, for there’s something about the Fremantle-Richmond match-up that has produced some incredibly low scoring affairs, with the last three head-to-heads seeing both teams score fewer than 60 points. 

But with the head-to-head history, Freo’s games this year averaging under 170 total points, and half-back Nick Vlaustin returning, the ‘unders’ interests us.

Ladbrokes is the place to be if you’re keen on Freo forward Jye Amiss to boot three goals for the fourth time in five games, with their price of 2.9 for 3+ goals the best in the market.

Tip: Under 163.5 Total Points – 1.9 With Unibet

Value Play: Jye Amiss To Kick 3+ Goals – 2.9 With Ladbrokes

Carlton Blues v Essendon Bombers, Sunday, 7:15pm (AEST)

Carlton Blues (W4 D1 L7) and Essendon Bombers (W7 L5) don’t need any additional context to get fired up for their minimum two meetings per year, but drawing first blood on what the AFL hope will be a new annual event adds to the differing short-term ambitions of both teams.

Under-fire Blues coach Michael Voss had to angrily shake off reports of friction emerging within the squad after a fifth consecutive loss in which they for a fourth time running failed to score 60 points.

It remains to be seen why they’re almost on even terms with Essendon in the markets on betting apps given they’ve now been plunged into an on-field crisis, have the worst goalkicking accuracy in the league, and the fourth-fewest points of all teams.

The Bombers have held onto their top-eight place with wins against North Melbourne, West Coast and Richmond, and now boast a perfect W5 record as pre-match favourites. 

“Two meter Peter” Wright will get his first start of the season after a shoulder injury, which only adds to our confidence.

Essendon’s Kyle Langford has bobbed up to kick the opening goal of the match three times in the last five rounds, and while for some punters that’s understandably a reason to look away, those who expect him to keep the good times rolling will find a comparatively good price.

Tip: Essendon By 1-39 Points – 2.45 With PlayUp

Value Play: Kyle Langford First Goalscorer – 12.0 With Ladbrokes