Even before the Phillies’ current four-game winning streak against the lowly Nationals and Tigers, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski wasn’t experiencing flashbacks to 2015, the last time he was a seller at the trade deadline.
That year, Dombrowski’s Tigers were 48-52 on July 28, but only 4 1/2 games out in the wild-card race. Justin Verlander was trying to regain his form after missing more than two months with a strained right triceps. Victor Martinez and Alex Avila also had returned from injuries. Miguel Cabrera was still out with a left calf strain, but due back in mid-August.
Dombrowski, in the last year of his contract, easily could have justified keeping the club intact for a run at a fifth straight playoff appearance. Instead, he made a last-minute pivot, parting with David Price, Joakim Soria and Yoenis Cespedes in the final two days before the trade deadline.
Which brings us to Dombrowski’s current team.
More than two months into the season, the defending National League champion Phillies are one of several high-priced, under-performing clubs. The landscape, however, is much different than it was when Dombrowski tore down the Tigers eight years ago.
The expansion of the playoffs last season created an additional wild card in each league. The 2022 Phillies became the poster children for how to take advantage of the new format, rallying from a dismal start to grab the third wild card and advance to the World Series. And while their current record is two games worse than it was at this point a year ago, the National League is stunningly weak, with three other projected contenders, the Mets, Padres and Cardinals, also struggling.
At least for now, Dombrowski sees no parallel to 2015.
“No. I don’t think so,” he said. “I think that Tigers club, our slow start that year was attributable a lot to injuries. And when they came back, they just weren’t quite the same. You could see some of the stuff wasn’t the same from our pitchers, from Verlander at that point.
“We watched that club. It never could get going. It would go a little bit, but it would sputter. It just was in my heart that we weren’t quite good enough. But we’re far away from that type of statement here.”
The Phillies opened the season with a franchise-record $243 million payroll, the fourth highest in the majors, after adding free agents Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm and trading for Gregory Soto. In Dombrowski’s view, the team has not played well, but started poorly for a variety of reasons:
The losses of Bryce Harper for the first month and Ranger Suarez for the first six weeks. The injuries to two first basemen, Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall. The absences of 15 players who left spring training for the World Baseball Classic, including catcher J.T. Realmuto at a time when teams were adjusting to the introduction of the pitch clock.
Dombrowski also pointed to the loss of top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, whom the team projected to be in its rotation, but has been out all season with a sprained UCL in his right elbow. The Phillies, following the demotion of Bailey Falter, are operating with a four-man rotation. But Aaron Nola produced his best start of the season Monday night. Suarez and Zack Wheeler are rounding into form, and Taijuan Walker, while still inconsistent, has been better of late.
The depth beyond that group is an obvious concern, but the Phillies are not without internal options. Painter, their first-round pick in 2021 who has pitched only 109 2/3 innings in the minors, could join the rotation at some point, Dombrowski said. Two other pitching prospects, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, could provide the same kind of lift Andrew Abbott gave the Reds on Monday night in his major-league debut.
As for the offense, which currently ranks 22nd in runs per game, Dombrowski sees signs of a revival. “The last few games is the first time, even when we’ve played better earlier in the year, that I felt we were getting close offensively,” he said.
“What are we, 7 1/2 games behind the Braves?” Dombrowski said. “They’ve got a good club. But we have really good starting pitching. When it’s pitching well, it can shut down anybody. We have a really good bullpen, a shutdown bullpen. And our good hitters can hit good pitching as well as anybody when they’re playing well. That’s the key for us. If we can get to that point, once you get in, then you take your chances.”
That’s what the Phillies did last season. Worked out OK.
Astros keep finding a way
Teams complaining about pitching injuries need look no further than the Astros as an example for how to navigate significant losses. Three of the team’s projected starters, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and José Urquidy, have thrown a combined 54 2/3 innings this season. Yet the Astros rank third in the majors with a 3.24 rotation ERA.
Hunter Brown, Brandon Bielak, J.P. France and Ronel Blanco, who essentially ranked sixth through ninth on the Astros’ depth chart at the start of spring training, have combined for a 3.50 ERA in 141 1/3 innings as starters. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome wrote about the warning signs surrounding that group, including the fielding-independent numbers of Bielak and France far exceeding their ERAs. Bielak allowed a whopping 18 hard-hit balls and 10 hits against the Blue Jays on Monday night, but only three runs.
Such success is likely unsustainable. Still, few teams could patch their rotation as successfully.
“They do an outstanding job here of developing pitchers,” said Dana Brown, the Astros’ first-year general manager. “It all started for me in spring training when I saw how well they did with their breakout tutoring sessions, which took place in an office behind my office. They spent a lot of time with the pitchers in these breakout sessions, talking to them about how to effectively use their stuff.”
Astros pitching coaches Josh Miler and Bill Murphy led the meetings, which also included minor-league instructors.
“A few of (the meetings) I sat in on early. I was like, ‘Hey, these guys are really paying attention to detail in terms of how to get these pitchers better,’” Brown said. “They would break down basically what they need to do and how they should pitch with the current stuff they have, what quadrants of the zone they should pitch in.”
The Astros’ approach at the deadline will hinge on their health. Their biggest need, depending upon Michael Brantley, who has been out all season while recovering from right shoulder surgery, might be a hitter. Then again, rotation depth is an obvious concern, and if McCullers and Urquidy fail to recover sufficiently, the addition of a starter might be a bigger priority.
Guardians’ Bieber: How hot a commodity?
The Athletic’s Zack Meisel makes a compelling case for why the Guardians should trade Shane Bieber, but rival executives are not convinced the 2020 American League Cy Young winner will fetch a significant return.
Since ‘20, Bieber’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 94.1 to 91.2 mph, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 41.1 percent to 16.3. Per Statcast, the hard-hit rate against him this season ranks among the highest in the league.
“I can’t say with 100 percent certainty he’s a playoff difference-maker,” said an executive who was granted anonymity so he could speak candidly. “He may help you get there, but I don’t know that he’s the answer in the playoffs.”
Bieber, who turned 28 on May 31, has a 3.57 ERA in 80 2/3 innings. He is earning $10.01 million this season, and has one more year of arbitration remaining before becoming eligible for free agency after next season.
J.D.: “You’ve got to marinate the steak”
Few hitters are more studious than J.D. Martinez. During his days with the Red Sox, he not only would examine video of himself on an iPad attached to the cage during batting practice, something many hitters do, but also consult with a private hitting coach standing nearby.
So when Martinez’s former instructor and best friend, Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, said the slugger fell into “a bunch of bad habits” in his final season with the Red Sox, I wondered how that was even possible for a hitter who pays such attention to detail.
“It’s one of those things when you keep looking at something over and over again and you just don’t see it,” Martinez said. “There were things I was kind of clueless to. (Van Scoyoc) was like, ‘no, dude, this is happening because of this.’ I had never thought of it like that. Just having a different set of eyes on it has helped a lot.”
Martinez, 35, addressed his offseason work with The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya in mid-April. Lower back soreness sidelined him on April 24, but since returning from the injured list on May 12, he has been one of the game’s best hitters, batting .303 with 11 homers, a 1.053 OPS and major-league best 28 RBIs. His overall slugging percentage is second in the majors only to Aaron Judge.
What did he need to fix last winter?
“Where to start?” asked Martinez, who signed a one-year, $10 million free-agent contract with the Dodgers on Dec. 29. “Everything. My hands. My transition in my hand load. My legs. Holding my back hip.
“Everything just kind of dominoes from my hands. If my transition is broken, my body is going to find another way to time the baseball and read the ball. Then it transitions to my lower body, then it transitions into my trunk not rotating as much as it used to. A bunch of little things that compound over time.
“I feel like I’ve been able to be competitive over the last couple of years because of, I don’t know, my will. I was just out-willing it. But being able to clean up some of those things have definitely shown up. It’s a different kind of me, I would say.”
When did he start to feel better at the plate?
“It’s never just a little light switch. You’ve got to marinate it. You’ve got to marinate the steak,” Martinez said. “It takes time. The way I view it, you work on things, you work on things, then you plan on everything clicking in August. But you’ve got to fix all these things. I don’t think it’s one of those things where everything started feeling great.
“I had to get back to ground zero again. It would be one thing if I felt like I couldn’t do it again, if I felt the bat speed wasn’t there, if all the stuff wasn’t lining up, I’d be like, ‘All right, maybe I’m just too old.’ But when all the bat-speed numbers are there and I still feel confident enough to play the game, I knew there was something mechanically wrong, something that was not allowing me to do what I used to be able to do.”
Van Scoyoc, who as a private hitting coach helped Martinez revive his career a decade ago, said the player is pulling the ball more because he is moving more efficiently at the plate. Martinez has improved his pull rate from 33.8 percent last season to 38.7 percent this season, his highest since 2019.
Plenty of young pitching, and more to come
We’ve seen glimpses of the Dodgers’ first wave of young pitching, from Bobby Miller to Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot to Michael Grove. Well, another wave is coming behind them, and club officials are gushing over the potential of that group.
How’s this for dominance? Through Sunday, the Dodgers’ rotation at Double-A Tulsa had a 2.30 ERA, according to STATS Perform. The next closest team in the Texas League was San Antonio at 3.81. Every other club was at 4.92 or above.
Yes, the Dodgers possess greater financial resources than most clubs, but their major-league success routinely forces them into low draft positions. The Tulsa rotation is a testament to their scouting, player development and shrewd trading, not their financial might.
The highest pick of the six Tulsa starters was Landon Knack, a second-rounder who went 60th overall in 2020. Nick Nastrini was a fourth-rounder in 2021, Emmet Sheehan a sixth-rounder that same year. The other three members of the rotation came in minor trades — River Ryan from the Padres for Matt Beaty, Kyle Hurt from the Marlins in the Dylan Floro deal, Nick Frasso from the Blue Jays in the Mitch White exchange.
Not all of these pitchers will end up stars. Some might not even make it to the majors. But the group’s current strength gives the Dodgers potential depth not only for their major-league club, but also potential capital for trades. Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers frequently have moved young pitching at the deadline, and rarely been burned.
Frankie Montas, Dean Kremer and Josiah Gray are the only former Dodgers pitching prospects to achieve major-league success, and each was part of a package that brought back high-level players — Montas went to the A’s for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick, Kremer to the Orioles for Manny Machado, Gray to the Nationals for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner.
The Dodgers might not want to part with better prospects at the deadline if the available talent is as meager as many executives fear. But however the Dodgers play it, they are once again well-positioned for the future.
The Marlins: More legit than they appear
You might be wondering, “How is it possible for the Marlins to be six games over .500 when they have been outscored by 29 runs?” The question certainly is fair, but the Marlins’ success demonstrates that run differential does not always accurately reflect a team’s performance.
The Marlins had three games in April that they lost by a combined 33 runs. On May 8, they were 17-19 and still minus-59. But since then, they’re 17-9 and plus-30. Their offense during that time has been a surprise, tied for sixth in the majors in runs per game.
Bryan De La Cruz, 26, and Jesús Sánchez, 25, are starting to break out, with OPSes of .820 and .904, respectively. Jorge Soler, who has hit 17 home runs, is taking a more selective approach. The offense should further improve once Jazz Chisholm Jr. returns from a sprained right big toe, probably later this month. And let’s not forget the wondrous Luis Arraez, who on Tuesday night improved his batting average to .401.
Arraez’s average exit velocity is only in the 31st percentile. His hard-hit percentage is in the bottom 2 percent of the league. His expected batting average, based on his quality of contact, is “only” .333. But the spray chart of his hits, per Statcast, is practically a work of art.
Royals seeking double play
As I wrote Tuesday in The Windup, The Athletic’s free daily newsletter, the Royals currently are giving teams interested in Aroldis Chapman two options, according to sources briefed on their discussions who were granted anonymity so they could speak candidly:
• Part with a better prospect package to gain control of Chapman for nearly four months of the regular season, rather than the two months a team would get by acquiring him at the trade Aug. 1 deadline.
• Accept Chapman as part of a package with another Royals player, enabling Kansas City to shed payroll while ensuring a better return in a trade.
One club that spoke with the Royals interpreted the team’s desire to attach Chapman to another player as an indication it wanted to move its highest-priced asset, catcher Salvador Pérez. But a more realistic package would be Chapman and fellow reliever Scott Barlow, a source said.
Chapman, 35 is earning $3.75 million this season on a one-year contract. Barlow, 30, is earning $5.3 million and comes with an additional year of control for any team that would be willing to offer him salary arbitration. A team that acquired both could instantly transform its bullpen. Chapman, a lefty, is holding opponents to a .556 OPS; Barlow, a righty, is holding them to a .613.
Trading Pérez, 33, would be trickier.
Pérez, the last remaining member of the Royals’ 2015 World Series championship team, possesses full no-trade protection as a player with 10 years of service, five consecutive with the same club. Batting .278 with 12 homers and an .816 OPS, he also is the team’s most likely All-Star and valuable to a young club. Too valuable to part with in a pure salary dump.
Interested teams, however, probably will not want to trade significant young talent for Pérez if they are taking on the remainder of his contract — the balance of his $20 million salary this season, a combined $42 million in 2024-25 and a $2 million buyout on a $13.5 million club option in 2026. Many teams also are reluctant to acquire catchers at the deadline and ask them to learn a new pitching staff in the middle of a season.
A Chapman-Barlow combination, then, almost certainly would be more feasible for the Royals to move, but with the deadline still nearly two months away, even that type of deal remains a longshot. The two relievers probably would bring a greater overall return if the Royals separated them at the deadline.
Only one thing seems certain: Chapman will be on the move. The only questions are when, and how.
Around the horn
• After I wrote recently about the turnarounds of four of the Rays’ unsung hitters, I sort of kicked myself for failing to include Jose Siri, whom I viewed separately because he only joined the team last August.
Well, let’s talk about Siri, who is batting only .241, but has 11 homers and an .878 OPS. He is a better defender and baserunner than he is a hitter. His whiff percentages, or swinging strikes per swing, remain astronomical. But he is getting to his power in a way that he had not earlier in his career.
Rays officials believe Siri’s breakthrough stems from a visit manager Kevin Cash and bench coach Rodney Linares paid him in his native Dominican Republic in mid-January. Cash told Siri he would replace Kevin Kiermaier as the team’s everyday center fielder. The vote of confidence freed up Siri mentally, helping him reach a new level as a hitter.
• Yankees hitting coach Dillon Lawson said of rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe, “If he was hitting a reckless .200, there’s no chance you’d have confidence. But it’s a professional .200.”
Actually Volpe is batting .191. His walk rate declined from 14.8 percent in March/April to 4.3 percent in May, while his strikeout rate rose from 28.7 percent to 31.9 percent (and is at 40 percent in a small sample size in June). He also is seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance than the league average.
Volpe, 22, continues to produce meaningful hits, the latest his ninth homer, a two-run shot, against the Dodgers on Sunday. But the Yankees’ other shortstop prospect, Oswald Peraza, recently hit 10 homers in a 15-game stretch at Triple A. He would represent a reasonable alternative if the team wanted to give Volpe a chance to reset in the minors.
• Teams in need of bullpen help already are eyeing the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Carl Edwards Jr., and Tigers’ Alex Lange, Will Vest and Jason Foley. Not the biggest of names obviously, but potential buyers harbor a growing fear that few quality players of any kind will be available.
As one executive from a contender put it, “Imagine a bunch of people waiting outside a store for the doors to open, and you walk in and there’s no inventory, there isn’t anything there.”
I’ll believe it when I see it, but “there isn’t anything there” could be the catchphrase of the 2023 trade deadline.
(Top photo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)