Dons star Darcy Parish is being targeted by a top-eight club, Ben McKay has sent a message to clubs eyeing him off, Damien Hardwick’s replacement is becoming clear plus more in Moneyball.
The debate around the go-home factor is set to explode again with West Coast and GWS Giants facing enormous decisions on prized selections this year.
The Eagles are considering a pick split for the second-straight season which could see them part ways with pick No. 1 while the Giants currently have choices four and six in their pockets.
Interstate clubs were open about the difficulties they faced taking players from across the border with top-10 selections considering the enormous investment.
But West Coast could face a similar scenario this year as the Eagles weigh up taking Bendigo product Harley Reid with No. 1 and the Giants looking to skip up the order.
GWS football manager Jason McCartney last year said some players were too much of a risk to draft considering the likelihood they would want to go home.
The comments were applauded for their honesty and made clear the challenges clubs such as the Giants faced trying to keep highly-rated players.
Tanner Bruhn was traded to Geelong despite the club’s best attempts to keep him, Bobby Hill made the move to Collingwood and Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper bailed to Richmond.
Separately, GWS traded picks three and 12 last year as part of the deal for pick one with North Melbourne because the Giants needed a key forward, and the club was confident the Darley product would commit to the club for the long term.
It means the go-home factor will likely be front of mind again this year as West Coast consider Reid and GWS juggle multiple picks.
“When you’re an interstate club and the draft board is predominantly, at the top end, looks like it’s littered with Victorian talent, you’ve got some risk there,” McCartney said.
“You might think it is fine that you just pick this player and you get them into your environment and your system and it is all fine.
“But if there’s apprehension about a player right from the word go about making the move interstate and they may go home, you just can’t take the risk unfortunately.
“The draft board for us and maybe some other interstate clubs – it’s not the same draft board (as the Victorian clubs).
“And that’s ok, that’s the reality.
“We’re not complaining about it. So we do have to look at things a little bit differently.
“Everyone can throw up the players and we love all the players that have been talked about but there’s some we can’t pick. That’s the reality.”
Other than Reid, Victorian top-five prospects include Nick Watson (Eastern Ranges), Zane Duursma (Gippsland Power) and Nate Caddy (Northern Knights).
Key position player Daniel Curtin and ruckman Mitchell Edwards are among the top Western Australian prospects who West Coast would likely target.
GWS recruiting manager Adrian Caruso said the club needed to do its homework on whether players were likely to hang around at the franchise club.
The issue will receive greater attention in the build-up to this year’s draft as West Coast and GWS sort its talent order and the players it can’t take.
“I would say there’s an element of risk associated with some players and it’s up to us to work out whether or not it’s worth that risk,” Caruso said.
“I think as a recruiting manager; we’ve got to do all our work on these boys and try and work out whether or not we think ultimately they’ll stay long term.”
Arden St elephant in the room
North Melbourne defender Ben McKay had one of his best games of the season on Sunday night as he and the club consider a new agreement.
McKay’s form has been up and down this year, but he hit back hard against Essendon keeping Bomber Sam Weideman goalless.
Rival clubs are expecting McKay to seriously consider departing North at season’s end if Port Adelaide maintains its strong interest in the back half of the season.
Port wants to bolster its back half and have kept a close eye on the Roos’ full-back.
If they signed McKay on a deal worth more than $800,000 a year, North would receive first-round draft pick compensation which is currently pegged at pick three.
McKay has conceded 20 goals to opposition forwards for the season, according to Champion Data.
Weideman had only four disposals and two marks on Sunday night as McKay racked up 18 touches, 14 intercept possessions and 10 marks in the Bombers’ last-gasp victory at Marvel Stadium.
Premiership Tiger set to stay on as new coach stakes claim for top job
Richmond free agent Kamdyn McIntosh is negotiating a new deal to stay at the Tigers despite being about to hit a games-based trigger for a deal for 2024.
The dual premiership free agent, 29, has been so durable and consistent Richmond is open to talks on a deal past next year.
McIntosh is one of the many Richmond players who are thrilled with the immediate impact of interim coach Andrew McQualter.
Richmond insiders believe McQualter is the man to beat to retain the job for 2024 given his mix of man management, tactical acumen and strong relationship with players.
In fact some Richmond figures would be surprised if he was beaten for the job next year.
Tigers CEO Brendon Gale says the club wants to find the next Damien Hardwick to coach the club for the next 10 years.
But with McQualter putting in such an impressive early audition the Tigers are in an excellent position with their coaching search.
If they can find a coach with better credentials than 36-year-old McQualter then an outstanding figure will have emerged.
Yet he has provided a seamless transition from the Hardwick era with a fighting win over GWS and a 10-point loss to white-hot Port Adelaide as the Tigers kicked 9.13 to squander their chances.
Cats ‘country dream’ plan still in force
Geelong has no plans to step away from its ‘sell the dream’ trade and free agency philosophy that has delivered a swag of acquisitions across the past decade with Carlton big man Tom De Koning and Essendon midfielder Darcy Parish among the targets this year.
Some rival recruiters have labelled the Cats’ location on the Bellarine Peninsula with the proximity to the Surf Coast as well as their extraordinary work-life culture as “the greatest free kick in football” in terms of attracting talent.
The Cats have made a strategic investment in chasing talent in the trade and free agency window in every season since 2014, with a particular emphasis on targeting former Geelong Falcons players.
The important thing is the Cats have been able to secure key talent often at cut-price rates with their ability to sell key on and off-field assets other than getting the best financial deal.
Geelong brought in Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes last October, but were surprised to miss out on Jacob Hopper, who ultimately chose Richmond.
It was a rare miss from the Cats, but insiders insist they are doing their best to try and attract the out of contract De Koning and Parish.
Parish is understood to be enjoying the environment at the Bombers at the moment, especially given the club’s improved fortunes this season.
But the former Geelong Falcon has long been on the Cats’ radar and he has a big decision to make on his future in the coming months.
De Koning has attracted the attention of several clubs, including the Cats and St Kilda, with Geelong in a position to push the idea of him playing with his brother Sam, who last year became a premiership player.
Emerging Bomber yet to sign
Jye Menzie is one of Essendon’s many mid-season success stories but is still awaiting an offer for a new deal despite 13 goals so far in his second season.
Menzie was taken at pick 15 in last year’s mid-season draft at a club that has also brought in Massimo D’Ambrosio and Sam Durham as mid-season finds.
He has averaged 1.2 goals, 4.5 score involvements and one direct score assist a game as a North Hobart product who then cut his teeth in the SANFL.
The Dons are keen to lock in Darcy Parish and Mason Redman before moving onto players including Menzie and Harrison Jones, who is out for the year with injury.
Are there more Jack Bowes loopholes out there?
The outrageous situation that saw Geelong securing pick 7 and Jack Bowes to absorb $1.6 million in cap space had some industry figures asking if a similar loophole was available in free agency.
Could a club like North Melbourne offer to pay up to $200,000 a year of McKay’s $800,000 salary at Port Adelaide in the next five seasons to guarantee them first-round free agency compensation?
After all, the league is looking at new-age “pick purchasing”, where a club effectively buys a high draft pick off another club by taking on some of their salary cap.
Under that scenario, a club like North Melbourne with millions in cap space might secure Collingwood’s first pick in the draft for $500,000 of cap space over a certain number of years.
But the league made clear on Tuesday that clubs could not pay for departing free agents _ maximising the free agency compensation – because they were not contributing to existing deals.
The league said clubs could only contribute to the contract of a previously contracted player for the duration of their existing deal.
So clubs considering letting free agents go will have to await the annual compensation lottery and perhaps come up with the kind of finely orchestrated deals that saw Essendon secure first-round compensation for the departing Joe Daniher.
Player agent grows base
Footy’s first Chinese-born player manager has hired Carlton’s former AFLW football boss Brett Munro to continue expanding his stable of AFLW players.
Jamie Pi started out with a dream and a single player – Richmond VFL player Massimo D’Ambrosio.
He helped secure D’Ambrosio a mid-season draft spot at Essendon last year, with the left-footer kicking the winning goal against North Melbourne on the weekend.
The uncontracted D’Ambrosio has recently left for the powerful Hemisphere stable despite their progress together.
But Pi now has 27 AFLW players and has brought on Munro to help build that stable in the burgeoning women’s football market.
Munro left Carlton in the wake of the revamp of their AFLW team after the sacking of coach Daniel Harford but is highly regarded across the AFL industry.
Is the back-ended contract dead and buried?
While clubs always shuffle money around across long-term deals, player managers are now pushing back hard against deals which load much of the salary into the final seasons.
Adam Treloar was forced out of Collingwood after agreeing to shuffle money back into the final years of his Pies deal and is now saddled with the expectations of a $900,000-per-season deal.
When in reality it was his preparedness to help the Pies that inflated that wage well above its average across the life of the deal.
Jack Bowes was forced out of Gold Coast after a back-ended deal and Nick Haynes deal at GWS is back-ended to such a degree he is paid more than $800,000.
Phil Davis is another Giant who selflessly back-ended a deal so the Giants could stay in the window.
David Swallow has just added another year on a $1 million a year deal to help spread out his 2023-24 salary for the Suns over three seasons.
So player managers will now be especially wary about accepting clubs’ requests given the capacity for those deals to backfire is so apparent.
Originally published as Moneyball: All the latest AFL trade, draft and contract news