The KFC SuperCoach rookie landscape is getting more clouded by the week, which means coaches need to get inventive. One option stands out above the rest for round 10.
AFL: West Coast’s disastrous season has continued after they were handed a 70-point drubbing at the hands of the Gold Coast Suns
KFC SuperCoaches will be seriously considering whether to pay more than $200k for another Sun this week after Humphrey’s breakout performance against West Coast on Friday.
The No. 6 pick in last year’s draft is projected to be about $214k after having 20 disposals, 10 contested possessions, five tackles, five marks and kicking a goal against the Eagles.
That price might sound like a lot, but it’s only $29k more than Humphrey’s starting price.
Not bad for a player who has scored 64 and 117 in his past two matches and has the all-important round 13 bye.
Humphrey was the sub in round 5 and then scored -3 in round 7, when he only had one disposal against Richmond.
Bailey Humphrey starred in Gold Coast’s victory over West Coast.
But he attended a season-high 19 per cent of centre bounces against the Eagles and relished the contest, showing the level of talent which made him a top-10 pick in last year’s draft.
With an average of 70 in the next three weeks, Humphrey will make more than $100k by Gold Coast’s round 13 bye and about $125k by the end of round 14.
Suns coach Stuart Dew mentioned Humphrey’s impact as a midfielder in his post match press conference.
Gold Coast’s bye will be a crucial factor when KFC SuperCoaches consider their trades in coming weeks.
The Suns share a bye with only one team – Geelong – making their players ideal cover for rounds 12, 14 and 15 — the latter two shaping as the most difficult bye rounds in KFC SuperCoach.
R9 #supercoach Price Projection* – Bailey Humphrey
StartPrice $185k
2023Scores ///39/38/43/-3/64R9BE 40
R9Score 117
R9:$179k->$214k(+$35k)
R10BE -59ProjScore 70
R10->$273k($59k)BE -31
R11->$319k($46k)BE 43
R12->$331k($12k)BE 50
R13BYE
R14->$340k($9k)BE 57*approx
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) May 13, 2023
The beauty is if Humphrey was to be used as a small forward and score poorly in any of the byes, he would be unlikely to factor into your best 18 anyway.
You essentially get a free hit at a player who has shown he has a large scoring ceiling — albeit against the struggling Eagles.
A low score in his second game will have coaches reconsidering whether to jump on Blake Drury.
Regardless, there will no doubt be coaches who consider cashing in Will Ashcroft to Humphrey this week, banking $150-$160k and using it to upgrade another rookie such as Kade Chandler.
Just remember before you trade for a player such as Humphrey, you’re effectively committing two trades to him (one to trade him in and one to cash him in after the byes).
It was the same for almost 29,000 KFC SuperCoaches who traded in Rory Atkins last round.
If you’ve got the trades left to make that happen, then Humphrey should be in your considerations.
If you’ve got 18 trades or less, you might need them for other issues and to make sure you have a full premium side after the byes.
Keep one of those trades to bring in Callum Mills when he bottoms out after being subbed in the first quarter of Sydney’s loss to Fremantle.
Mills is projected to get as low as $420k and will be a perfect fallen premium for your midfield after the Swans’ bye.
Complicating the rookie landscape ahead of round 10 is the fact Blake Drury struggled in his second game and is no guarantee to be chosen for a third match.
At $102k, Drury was set to be the most popular downgrade this week and more than 30,000 coaches made him the top trade-in for round 9.