Midweek racing heads to Mornington on Wednesday.
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RACE 1:
Forecast is for some showers all week, so track should stay at least soft 7 and could get to heavy 8 depending on the amount of rain. This does look like a one-act affair with MOJAVE DANCER and he’s likely to start well into the red figures. He sat outside the leader at Flemington last start in what developed as a sprint home and he battled on gamely to beat all but Le Zebra. This is much easier, he only has 1.5kg over the limit and he will lead or sit on pace and prove too good. Gets blinkers on too. Stablemate UNOWHO could be the danger. He was at big odds on debut at the Kensington track in Sydney but he held his own down the straight and he will be fitter. Extra distance suits. SALOU was okay on debut at Sale last week and will be fitter. ACIERTO was thrashed on debut at Bendigo by Nodachi but he beat the rest home and will be improved with the freshen up.
Suggested bet: Mojave Dancer to anchor trifectas/first fours.
RACE 2:
LADY COURT welcomed the step up in distance and the wet track and gave her rivals a galloping lesson at Hillside three weeks ago. She sat outside the leader, cruised around the bend and then exploded away when given full rein to win as she liked. Looks a distinct lack of speed here, so it wouldn’t surprise if she kicked up to lead or share the lead as she did last start. Wet track conditions will prove no hindrance and looks hard to beat. Value runner in the race could be RED COLOMBINE. Loved her effortless win in weaker grade at Ararat and then she boxed on well enough at Hillside behind the promising Jaykayann. Had a recent trial to keep her up to the mark. Has handled heavy in the past as well and Blake Shinn sticks with her. FLASH MARY is a former Kiwi who has been solid at last couple. Battled on at Hillside in the wet and then no match for Khoekhoe at Lakeside but she held on well to beat the rest. Suited with the claim and will be on pace again. Loves it wet. MYSTERY MOMENT is a former Perth galloper who drifted noticeably in betting at Pakenham when resuming but she ran on well between horses and will be improved.
Suggested bet: Lady Court to win but also keen on 1,2,3,6 for trifectas/first fours.
RACE 3:
It’s been a fair while since RAINBIEL contested this grade. She has been competitive in much stronger races since her 3yo days. She resumes here but has had a couple of jumpouts/trials and she has looked in great order, notably her win at Werribee in the wet and then last Friday at Kilmore when she won with ease. She normally goes well fresh, can handle the wet and gets the claim to help. Hard to beat. STERN IMPULSE faces stronger grade but she is trained here and has benefited from two jumpouts. She comes in with a light weight after the claim and goes well fresh. ASYMMETRICAL has had two jumpouts on synthetic surfaces and performed well at each. She was good first-up last campaign in this grade at the Valley. Unknown in very wet ground but is by So You Think and the breed normally handle it. SEONEE is coming back in distance but is more than capable of running over the top of these late.
Suggested bet: Rainbiel to win.
RACE 4:
Looks a good race for FERLAZZO. Was a long odds on favourite when she enjoyed the good trail, got out at top of the straight, accelerated and was eased down on the line to win her maiden at Ballarat with ease. Went to Flemington last start and didn’t see clear galloping room until late and thought she ran on well behind Oceans Above. All the better for the first try at 1600m, down in grade here and Ollie jumps back on board. Will start a short price but looks the winner. PERFECT ENDING enjoyed all the favours in the run to win her maiden at Geelong and then had to wait for clear air but ran on late behind Nijiko at Bendigo. Looks promising and will go well again. Liked the final 100m of PASHEONA’s win at Kilmore when she raced away for an easy win in heavy ground. Can go on with it. REGAL ALLIANCE fell in at a short price last start but she is improving.
Suggested bet: Ferlazzo to win.
RACE 5:
Lot to like about the Aussie debut of MONARCHS BRAE at Bendigo two weeks ago. Yes it was only a maiden but liked his toughness late to overpower his rivals and win with something in hand. He will be even better with the extra yardage, drops 3kg in this harder grade and draws well to get a gun run. Looks hard to beat. THE NEPHEW missed a start at Hillside on the weekend. He resumed and was fair behind Altivo at Flemington and looked good in a top up jumpout on Friday. Ready to improve. GENERAL FIREPOWER is consistent and will be a threat again. COURT DEEP battled on after leading at Hillside three weeks back and does like it wet.
Suggested bet: Monarchs Brae to win.
Monarchs Brae wins at Bendigo and is favoured to repeat the dose at Mornington.
RACE 6:
Prepared to be with AESOP here. Think he’s the best horse in the race if he can find his best form. He got a long way back when resuming off a bleeding ban and hit the line well enough without threatening behind Altivo at Flemington. Drops in grade here, better suited at the 2000m, helped by the claim and is a second-up winner. Does have a win over the high class Pounding to his credit in the spring. Just won’t want it too wet. BROOKLYN BOSS has been consistent of late and looks the leader here. Hard fit and will take running down. BLAZING REBEL went for home before the straight and demolished his rivals at Cranbourne. Looks a big threat here despite hefty weight. KING COUVER is back in form and rates highly.
Suggested bet: Aesop each way.
RACE 7:
With the claim, the handy HELL HOUND comes in with just 2kg over the limit, not bad for a filly who is a city winner and has performed well in stakes grade. She wasn’t beaten far by Razeta in Listed grade on Oaks day in the spring. Got too far back on resuming in Adelaide but still hit the line okay despite having not much luck. Drawn well and will take beating. MISS ICELANDIC looks a smart type. She was eight weeks between runs and still too good for them at Cranbourne last start. This harder but keeps steppinhg up to the mark. CADENABBIA looks over the odds. She was an impressive winner at Ballarat and then hit the line hard at Bendigo two weeks ago. Can measure up. THE GUAVA is honest and worth considering.
Suggested bet: Hell Hound to win.
RACE 8:
GALLEON is a promising type. Only lightly raced but is unbeaten first-up and unbeaten at this trip. Off rhe scene since pulling up lame behind Daytona Bay at Lakeside in August. Looked a million dollars winning a trial at Werribee in wet ground with Ollie on board and he sticks with this sprinter here. Big threat. SHALAMAN looks silly odds to me. He was never a chance down the straight at Flemington last start but he was good when battling on behind She Dances at Lakeside before that. Draws to be on speed here and is trained on the track. HESKET is resuming but had had a couple of jumpouts and has been placed this t/d. Definite danger. MICHELOTTI will be better as his races getr longer but with good speed on here, he will be finishing hard and he likes it wet.
Suggested bet: Galleon to win.
Best bet
Monarchs Brae (race 5)
Best value
Rainbiel (race 3)