All the big guns are represented as the Winter Carnival moves towards its climax and with form lines coming from everywhere staying with the tried and true may be the way to go.
Eagle Farm plays perfectly these days and with the rail true form should hold up though it helps if horses have prior experience on the track.
BEST BET: ROTHFIRE (Race 8 No 4)
NEXT BEST: BIGBOYROY (Race 4 No 5)
VALUE BET: JUAN DIVA (Race 9 No 3)
Quaddie numbers are:
Race 6: 2,9
Race 7: 1,4
Race 8: 1,4,7,11
Race 9: 3,4,8,10
64 combinations
Race 1- Benchmark 78 Handicap 1600m
Nothing would surprise here and while KINETIC (12) took a while to win her Maiden she has come back in fine fettle winning her past two outings in midweek company the most recent here over this trip. This is harder but she is a winner of two of three starts here, Ben Thompson stays on and it is always hard to go past a mare in form.
BOTTEGA (1) has got a good horse’s weight but was a Group level performer earlier in his career. While those days are behind him Lee Freedman got two wins out of him last preparation and fitter for four outings he finds the right class. If there is anything there James McDonald will find it.
YASUKE (13) is a three-year-old taking on seasoned older horses but may have more upside than the rest. He was never likely after travelling wide in the Rough Habit but this trip may be more to his liking. Winkers go on and with only 52kg Damien Thornton will be in the box seat throughout.
BLACKLOG (4) can run a big race at odds as he showed last start in higher grade when narrowly beaten by Alburq. Marnu Potgeiter stays on and while longer might be better is well placed with only 57kg. He will give them a start but can worry them late.
Verdict- KINETIC (12) is ready for Saturday grade.
Race 2- Class 6 Handicap 1400m
A winner of six of seven starts ANTINO (1) is in the Group 1 later in the day but needs scratchings to get a run. He has drawn the carpark here and his only defeat came when drawn wide in the Gateway over this trip when he went forward to be run down late. He doesn’t win by much but knows how to do it and Jim Orman rides him to script. 61.5 kg tests but he is better than these.
MANHOOD (3) is another better than Class 6 and has won two of his three starts this preparation. He goes to 1400m for the first time and will get the gun run with Ryan Maloney. Without ANTINO (1) he is the one to beat.
SUR LA MER (7) brings strong Southern form and wasn’t far away in a Group 3 at Scone last start. She has a good third-up record and Nash Rawiller will give her every chance.
MISSISSIPPI PRINCE (5) is honest and comes to Eagle Farm for the first time. He was only collared late over 1600m last start and this is his optimum trip. With Mark Du Plessis he will make his own luck and be hard to pass.
Verdict- ANTINO (1) the one to beat.
Race 3- Premier’s Cup (Group 3) 2400m
The English Derby winner SERPENTINE (3) dictated terms to suit and beat KALAPOUR (4) comfortably last start. He meets that horse 3kg better, Tim Clark stays on and if allowed to roll along a similar result can be expected.
OTYRAR (10) wasn’t suited by the moderate tempo at Doomben and much prefers Eagle Farm. He is running into form at the right time and won his only previous start over this trip. When last in Queensland he won five of eight starts and is ready to strike again.
The stablemate KUKERACHA (5) saves his best for Queensland and at his only previous run over this trip won the Queensland Derby. His only subsequent win was here last Winter but he signalled he was on the way back when just missing in the Wagga Cup last start. A solid speed suits and James McDonald always gives them every chance.
KALAPOUR (4) beat several of these last start at Doomben and won here three starts back. He rises 2.5kg and Blake Shin replaces Tim Clark but is in form and won up to 2550m in Ireland before arrival.
Verdict- SERPENTINE (3) hard to pass again.
Race 4- Lord Mayor’s Cup (Group 3) 1800m
History can repeat with BIGBOYROY (5) which won this race last year and showed he is ready to go with a bold effort from a wide gate at Doomben when resuming. He goes best when allowed to roll along and Nash Rawiller can take full advantage of an inside draw.
The stablemate NEW MANDATE (4) was unsighted in the Hollindale but is much better suited here and was too good in the Hawkesbury Cup at his previous start. There are some question marks at the journey but James McDonald will have him close enough if good enough.
LUNCIES (13) has only won once since arriving in Australia but that was over this trip and he has placed multiple times at Group level. He charged home to just miss in the Scone Cup when resuming and this big track suits. With Blake Shinn he will get his chance.
BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (9) was unsighted in the Scone Cup when resuming but has a liking for Queensland and Eagle Farm. He goes well second-up and has won two of three starts here over this trip. With an in-form Tyler Schiller he can surprise.
Verdict- Hoping for a positive ride on BIGBOYROY (5).
Race 5- Fred Best Classic (Group 3 Three-Year-Olds) 1400m
A Golden Ticket for the Stradbroke on offer for YELLOW BRICK (2) which has won six of eight and was too good in the Gold Coast Guineas at the Sunshine Coast when resuming. FASHION LEGEND (1) lowered his colours in the Magic Millions but there were excuses and he can make amends.
FASHION LEGEND (1) is unbeaten second-up and will strip fitter after fading out in the Takeover Target at Gosford when resuming. When last in Queensland he won four straight including a victory over YELLOW BRICK (2) in the Magic Millions Three-Year-Old Guineas. He won his only Eagle Farm start over this trip and Josh Parr will be rounding them up late.
HAWAII FIVE OH (8) was dominant in the Hawkesbury Guineas despite Nash Rawiller being 1kg over. He is improving every outing, carries the same weight with will get a good run just off the speed.
ZOU TIGER (4) didn’t enjoy blinkers and being crowded last start in the Arrowfield. He has trialled since and when last over this trip was only run down late in the Group 2 Hobartville. That form is good enough for this and James McDonald can overcome a wide gate.
Verdict- On YELLOW BRICK (2) but double-figure odds for FASHION LEGEND (1) attract.
Race 6- Sires’ Produce (Group 2 Two-Years-Old) 1400m
Chris Waller may be in for a big day and CHRYSAOR (2) came from off the speed to win well when resuming at Gosford. He showed at his first preparation In Queensland a big track is what he likes and will get things to suit with Nash Rawiller drawing to do no work.
Graeme and Deborah Rogerson know what it takes to win here and have brought Ryan Elliot over to ride SOLIDIFY (9) which has won two of three outings the latest in Listed company at Te Rapa. The JJ Atkins may be his goal but he gets an opportunity to make a statement.
CIFRADO (1) is not the most fashionable but has been racing as though he will relish this trip. He pounced late to beat a similar field in the Champagne Classic at Doomben and this bigger track will be right up his alley. Damien Thornton stays on and will be hard to hold out again.
ARMED FORCES (7) is only a maiden but was only just nutted by CIFRADO (1) last start. He will improve off that and James McDonald will have him near the speed throughout.
Verdict- Going with a proven one in CHRYSAOR (2) but wary of SOLIDIFY (9).
Race 7- Queensland Derby (Group 1 Three-Year-Olds) 2400m
Hard to go past KOVALICA (1) which was too good for them in the Queensland Guineas and has breeding that says he will relish this trip. He was beaten just over a length by seasoned older horses in the Doomben Cup last week and if he has backed-up will be too good for these.
PROMISES KEPT (4) defied his pedigree and beat all but the winner in the South Australian Derby. He will find this harder but Mark Zahra stays on and from gate one could control the tempo to suit.
XTRAREVZ (15) got too far back in the Rough Habit but was hitting the line late. Winkers go on and while he may not have the dash of others will appreciate this journey. If several go forward and set a strong tempo he may be the last man standing.
Even though the trip is a question mark THE VOWELS (2) cannot be ignored. He is deep in his preparation, tries his heart out and Jim Orman will send him forward to overcome the wide gate,
Verdict- If KOVALICA (1) handles the quick back-up he wins.
Race 8- Kingsford Smith Cup (Group 1) 1300m
Eagle Farm has always been ROTHFIRE (4) ‘s track and he showed great heart to beat them all in the Victory Stakes here last start. He has come back in good order, will get a soft run behind the likely leader EDUARDO (1) and with Blake Shinn will be hard to get past late.
KING OF SPARTA (7) is hard to follow but was rounding them up in the Victory Stakes and only just missed. He has been kept fresh with a trial and from gate two draws to do no work. He gives a start but if Chad Schofield has him in touch can swamp them late.
Joe Pride has an up-and comer in THINK ABOUT IT (11) which has won seven of eight and was too good when resuming from the outside gate in the Takeover Target at Gosford. This is much harder and Eagle Farm can be tricky first time but he loves this trip and will get every chance with Sam Clipperton.
The stablemate EDUARDO (1) is a nine-year-old but has an excellent first-up record. He has won both trials leading into this and has won twice previously at the trip. With Nash Rawiller, no Nature Strip and a soft lead in front he will be hard to pass.
Verdict- Staying local with ROTHFIRE (4).
Race 9- Helen Coughlan Stakes (Listed Fillies and Mares) 1200m
A lottery for mares seeking to boost their broodmare value. A good gate and suitable trip will help JUAN DIVA (3) which was only run down late when last here over 1300m. She has been finding it tough at recent outings but goes best when allowed to run along near the speed. With the crossover nose band off, Jason Collett can go forward and be hard to pass.
BROOKSPIRE (8) usually needs one run but she has had two trials and Chris Waller has put James McDonald on board. When last here she won the Magic Millions Fillies and Mares race and that form is good enough for this.
EXTREMIST (10) did everything but win last start and Angela Jones stays on. She has won here previously and fitter for two outings can give a sight again.
Bad gates have been the downfall of SNEAKY FIVE (4) at both outings since resuming. She is better drawn here, and with Jim Orman a positive ride can have her in the frame.
Verdict- Some value with JUAN DIVA (3).