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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Joseph Gedeon. Today, we’re watching a news conference that could set a new course for Canada’s conversation about foreign interference in elections. Plus, a familiar face in Ottawa tiptoes toward a party leadership bid. And Indigenous people in Washington state have a bone to pick with the Government of Canada.
THE JOHNSTON REPORT — Is that what the shorthand-obsessed Hill culture will dub former governor general DAVID JOHNSTON‘s recommendations on how the federal government should do next about foreign interference?
Whatever it’s called, expect the advice dropped today by the “independent special rapporteur” — aka “ad hoc eminent Canadian tasked with buying JUSTIN TRUDEAU some time” — to reset the national debate on interference that’s either simple or complex, serious or silly. Depends who you ask in this town.
The big question: Will Johnston call on the government to call an independent public inquiry into foreign interference that opposition parties have demanded for months? He could advise a different course of action, or a grab bag of government assignments.
— Poisoned chalice? Johnston’s 12 p.m. press conference, on an otherwise quiet Tuesday in a post-holiday parliamentary break week, is literally located at the Sir John A. Macdonald Building across the street from West Block
But he might as well take questions between a rock and a hard place, because that’s where he sits two months after his mid-March appointment as time-buyer — er, rapporteur.
— This just in: Former Tory leader ERIN O’TOOLE dropped a Substack post late Monday packed with claims about Johnston’s fact-finding process. Here’s one: Johnston’s team waited until the final week before his report’s publication to reach out for an interview.
O’Toole says his office was then given a two-day window for a sit-down. He made time. “You might understand how disappointed I was to learn halfway through my meeting that Johnston’s report was already undergoing French translation,” he wrote.
Oof.
The ex-leader asks hard questions of not only Johnston, but also MORRIS ROSENBERG — the author of an assessment of federal protocol in place to prevent election interference in 2021.
— Not worth it: Current party leader PIERRE POILIEVRE didn’t bother to meet Johnston, blaming a scheduling conflict before revealing that he had zero interest in a sit-down.
To Poilievre, Johnston and Trudeau are old pals — “ski buddies,” to be specific. Johnston “has a fake job and is unable to do it impartially,” Poilievre recently told reporters in a scathing assessment dismissed by Liberal Cabmin DOMINIC LEBLANC as “unseemly.”
The message from the Tory camp: inquiry or bust.
— Only one option: NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH and Bloc Québécois leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET both want an inquiry. Countless newspaper columnists and political analysts insist it’s the only responsible way forward. Security experts who understand the intelligence community are on the same page.
It’s not quite unanimous. FRED DELOREY, the Conservative campaign manager in 2021, has said repeatedly that an inquiry wouldn’t uncover anything that existing mechanisms can’t handle — including a parliamentary probe where he testified.
— It’s all about scope: If the crowd is correct and Johnston recommends an inquiry today, the fine print will be crucial. How much detail will the former GG include in his advice? Would he limit the scope to alleged interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections? Would he focus on China alone, or widen the field to include Russia or Iran?
O’Toole’s call to action: “We must charge the inquiry with recommending how best to modernize and strengthen the resiliency of our democracy. Opposition parties and diaspora groups must be meaningfully engaged in the selection of the inquiry lead and in setting its terms of reference.”
Johnston is hosting the press conference at noon, but it’s a hot seat all the same. He may be the only man under more pressure on this file than the prime minister.
SHE’S (PROBABLY) RUNNING — BONNIE CROMBIE made no secret of her interest in the Ontario Liberal leadership race at the federal party’s convention earlier this month.
Mississauga’s three-term mayor isn’t in in. Yet. But Crombie granted the customary pre-candidacy interview treatment to the Toronto Star’s ROB BENZIE. More to the point, Crombie prematurely launched her campaign website Monday before taking it down — and then going live again.
She’s also sitting down for 20-plus media interviews today.
Officially, Crombie is only “exploring” a run. She told Benzie she’ll make a final decision “later this year.” But bonnieforleader.ca is definitive. Her not-a-campaign registered the domain on May 6, the same day she held court on the sunny Metropolitain patio next door to the Liberal convention.
— Top issues: “Healthcare, education, and affordability” — in that order.
— Future attack ad: “[Ford and his government] are rewarding their friends instead of looking after the needs of the people.”
— Reorientation: “I’m a centrist by nature. I’m socially progressive, but fiscally responsible.” Crombie told the Star that provincial Liberals have “moved too far to the left.”
— The LinkedIn profile: Crombie plays up her stints as city councilor and MP, but spells out her private sector work for the likes of Disney, McDonald’s and the Insurance Bureau of Canada.
— Key supporters: Forty names crowd the exploratory committee’s membership list. Seven MPs are there: IQRA KHALID, SONIA SIDHU, RUBY SAHOTA, JAMES MALONEY, FRANCESCO SORBARA, RECHIE VALDEZ, and LEAH TAYLOR ROY. Nine former MPs are also lining up behind Crombie, including DWIGHT DUNCAN, TIM MURPHY and BRAD DUGUID.
— A formidable opponent: The mayor’s candidacy freaks out some provincial Tories. Crombie is hugely popular in Mississauga, a prime battleground in any race for Queen’s Park. She was reelected last fall with 77 percent of the vote.
Crombie also scored a big win this month, aided by potential election foe DOUG FORD, when the premier and local mayors announced that Mississauga and Brampton would leave the Peel regional municipality. Crombie had pushed for an independent city for years.
— The competition: The leadership race’s only other official candidate is outspoken Toronto MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, whose primary pitch to party members is “doing politics differently” — including by energizing the party grassroots and appeal to younger voters.
Liberal MP YASIR NAQVI is also a likely candidate. His appeal as a team player who stick-handled tricky files as a Queen’s Park Cabinet minister has won him many fans. Naqvi isn’t official just yet, but he’s hosting a two-part “special event” on June 3.
Naqvi will host a pancake breakfast at St. Anthony’s Banquet Hall before traveling to Mississauga for a 5:30 p.m. gathering at the Capitol Banquet Centre, where event capacities range from 50 to 4,000.
INDIGENOUS RIGHTS — A billion-dollar project recently approved by the federal government to expand a marine container terminal in waterways just south of Vancouver faces new hurdles after the Lummi Nation in Washington state took action to block it.
We first spied the reporting on this brewing disagreement in the Guardian.
The tribe is arguing they were not meaningfully consulted at any stage of the approval process for the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 project, and filed for a judicial review late last week in Canadian federal court.
— The Lummi argument: Canadian law requires Indigenous communities be consulted on projects that could adversely affect their rights and lifestyles. The Impact Assessment Agency (IAA) has consulted with 48 Indigenous nations on the terminal proposal since 2011. A formal agreement was reached with 26 of those groups.
However, the Lummi Nation — which straddles the B.C.-Washington border — believe they were not properly accommodated.
According to the legal filing reviewed by POLITICO, the nation sent a letter to Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT demanding meaningful consultation in October 2021, and followed up again in January 2022.
A preliminary meeting took place in March. The Lummi followed up with a “strength of claim” submission. The filing claims the federal government did not respond to the submission and “the agency did not…decide to engage in meaningful consultation,” the filing reads.
Some First Nations and conservation groups have concerns that the expansion could threaten endangered marine species, including killer whales. They also worry about chinook salmon, a main food source for Indigenous people that live in the region.
The Lummi people, also known as Lhaq’temish or People of the Sea, insist they have a case. The Supreme Court ruled in a landmark 2021 case that Native American groups along the international border are entitled to Aboriginal rights in Canada — even as non-residents or citizens.
— The economic case: The contentious project is the brainchild of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, which aims to add a three-berth container terminal in Delta, British Columbia, to keep up with trade traffic. The IAA says the expansion would increase the port’s capacity by 50 percent, creating thousands of jobs and adding another C$3 billion to the national GDP.
— What’s next: A federal spokesperson told the Guardian it would be “premature” for the government to comment on this case, which “will likely be heard in court at the end of the year.”
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— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has private meetings. (We suspect an updated itinerary will surface at some point.)
12 p.m. DAVID JOHNSTON, special rapporteur on foreign interference, will present his first report and will hold a media availability at the Sir John A. Macdonald Building in Ottawa.
12 p.m. (11 a.m. CT) JENNIFER BONE, Chief of Sioux Valley Dakota Nation, and Crown–Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER will announce “historic” infrastructure investments in the community in Manitoba.
3 p.m. (12 p.m. PT) Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will join the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade at the Fairmont Hotel for a conversation on Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.
7:40 p.m. Economist ARMINE YALNIZYAN will deliver the 2023 Ellen Meiksins Wood Lecture at Toronto Metropolitan University.
ONE MONTH OF HYBRID — The motion that extended the hybrid House of Commons to the end of the spring sitting runs out June 23. If MPs want to extend the arrangement, or kibosh it, they have a month to haggle over the details.
The interpreters who translate proceedings into both of Canada’s official languages will be watching closely. Their union, the Canadian Association of Professional Employees, quietly negotiated a tentative four-year deal with the Translation Bureau announced last Friday.
The two sides settled on a 12.5-percent wage increase over the life of the deal.
— Unhappiness in the ranks: A new collective agreement doesn’t fix some of the discontent interpreters are feeling on the job. They’ve complained for much of the pandemic about poor audio quality causing serious injury to physical and mental health.
Playbook asked ANDRÉ PICOTTE, a CAPE VP who represents interpreters, for a status report on working conditions in the House.
— The big takeaways: Zoom does not meet the audio standard, says Picotte. MPs and senators are mostly using adequate mics, but witnesses can’t always make the same claim. (Hill reporters were recently asked to use high-quality gear when they phone into press conferences.)
It all adds up to “toxic sound” that has forced people to seek other work, he says — and deters potential hires from joining the bureau. A labor shortage hasn’t disrupted the work of Parliament yet, he said. Emphasis on yet.
But Picotte says word has gotten out among interpreters.
“They all know what’s going on in Parliament. And they are not really interested in taking a job that will cost them their hearing,” he says. “If it goes on like that, maybe in a year or two, there will be problems.”
— The company line: Playbook asked Public Services and Procurement Canada, which houses the Translation Bureau, for stats on how many interpreters are currently missing work due to some sort of injury.
The bureau employs 67 official language staff interpreters. Thirteen are “either on leave or have modified duties.” On May 12, three interpreters were “on leave related to sound injury.”
Recruitment plummeted in the pandemic. The bureau managed to hire only three people in 2020–21 and 2021–22. But nine interpreters were brought on board in 2022–23.
— The bottom line: Picotte acknowledges the interpreters don’t wield any decision-making power on the future of the hybrid House.
He did express a preference during testimony last year to the House committee studying the matter. Interpreters will adapt to the will of Parliament, he told MPs. But in-person meetings are much easier on the ear.
FROM THE POLLS — Abacus Data’s DAVID COLETTO posted new survey data on Monday afternoon. Abacus previously gave RACHEL NOTLEY‘s NDP a 10-point lead as recently as May 11, and a tighter 3-point advantage five days later.
The tables turned in Coletto’s latest survey, which reached 1,507 Albertans from May 19-22.
DANIELLE SMITH‘s United Conservatives now enjoy a 3-point lead to call their own, including a five-point spread — 47 percent to 42 — in the crucial Calgary battlegrounds.
Notley can salvage some good news. Smith and the UCP are the “most risky” choice for 53 percent of voters, and 54 percent say the NDP is best placed to tackle health care. But Smith carries a 58-42 advantage on who is the best manager of the economy.
— Key takeaway: “The deep divide on almost every measure shows how polarized the choice in this campaign has become,” writes Coletto.
— Prognostication: 338Canada gives Smith the edge.
ALL THE WAYS IT COULD GO — Go-to Alberta politics commentator DAVE COURNOYER turned over his popular Substack to CHRIS HENDERSON, chief strategist and partner at Y Station Communications & Research.
Henderson played out four election result scenarios, including a tight UCP majority. He ascribed a spiciness reading on each scenario. The slim Smith win merited “a pepper so hot, you melt like you’re staring into the Ark of the Covenant.”
— One Quebec Senator introduced a law to put health labels on all alcoholic bottles, reports CBC’s JOHN PAUL TASKER.
— The ongoing wildfires in Western Canada have prompted Colorado and Montana to issue air quality alerts. AccuWeather’s ADRIANA NAVARRO has the story on the unprecedented burns.
— There are 176 Chinese nationals with diplomatic credentials in Canada, making it the second largest diplomatic presence in Canada after the United States, according to new data by Global Affairs Canada. Get the details from CTV’s JUDY TRINH.
— A Quebec company building a lithium mine in the James Bay region has signed an 11-year deal to sell products to Ford, writes JACOB SEREBRIN from The Canadian Press.
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: There’s a Plan B to shut down Line 5
In news for POLITICO Pro subscribers:
— Fight against ‘shadow fleet’ shipping Russian oil takes EU into uncharted waters
— Permitting, supply chain issues stall clean energy deployment
— ‘Too early for red lines’: Countries urged to find agreement in pandemic treaty negotiations
— Biden bucks Democrats on GOP fentanyl bill
— DeSantis is fighting Disney. Here are some of his other feuds with big business.
Birthdays: HBD to former MP WAYNE STETSKI. HBD + 1 to the Globe’s ADAM RADWANSKI.
Spotted: Veterans Affairs Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY recused himself from Cabinet deliberations over one of Canada’s newest senators, JANE MACADAM, an accountant and former P.E.I. auditor general. “My relative by marriage,” MacAulay, a fellow islander, disclosed.
Movers and shakers: SOPHIE GRÉGOIRE TRUDEAU has two new books coming out from Penguin Random House Canada. One of them, Closer Together: Knowing Ourselves, Loving Each Other, will be published in spring 2024. (h/t IAN BAILEY)
Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association filed three recent meetings late last week: TONY MAAS, PMO senior policy adviser; SAMIR KASSAM, senior policy adviser to Trade Minister MARY NG; and CHRIS EVANS, senior director of pipelines, gas and LNG at Natural Resources Canada.
Media mentions: SISSI DE FLAVIIS is joining the national digital team at CTV News.
→ Find the latest on House committee meetings here.
→ Keep track of Senate committee meetings here.
Friday’s answer: “A leader is expected by the image-maker to be a combination of Abraham Lincoln and Batman, to perform instant miracles,” LESTER B. PEARSON said in the April 5, 1965, Globe and Mail.
Props to GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and FRANCOISE BOIVIN.
Today’s question: Name the mayor who said, “The worship title, at this point, is not something that I need from any of you.”
Send your answers to [email protected].
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