When Aston Villa’s push for Europe started to gain serious momentum six weeks ago, the only question was which competition could they qualify for.
Somehow, finishing in a top-four spot and playing Champions League football in September was still on.
The difficulty was that however slender the six points between themselves in sixth and Newcastle United in fourth place felt, what was to come — a brutal set of remaining fixtures as well as rivals catching up on their games owed — was always likely to leave Villa lagging behind.
That their evolving team, under the clever guidance of head coach Unai Emery, were — and remain, with a game to go — in with a chance of playing on the continent next season highlights the impressive turnaround from late October, when Villa were three points off the bottom of the table late in his predecessor Steven Gerrard’s tenure.
European nights felt like a million miles away at that point and deep down there were never any serious conversations around the Champions League between Emery and his players.
Speaking to The Athletic last month, John McGinn smirked when the suggestion of qualifying for UEFA’s blue-riband club competition was put to him. “The Champions League?” he laughed. “We’d have to win every game!”
Emery, meanwhile, wouldn’t waste time engaging on the topic. “No, very difficult,” he politely put it.
Yet while Villa’s dream of mixing with the continental elite in 2023-24 finished before it even got started, what the closing weeks of the season have shown is how competitive this team have become.
Seven points from games against Newcastle, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool — who have been scrapping between themselves for the third and fourth Champions League spots — in the past month shows Villa are not far off.
If they now beat visitors Brighton & Hove Albion in next Sunday’s final round of fixtures, they are guaranteed a place in Europe.
The in-form Jacob Ramsey, who has been a crucial goalscoring influence in recent weeks with three in seven appearances, says the players are planning on showing how they can sustain the form shown under Emery — 14 wins in his 24 league games — over a full season.
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp, meanwhile, believes Villa will be a threat in the top-four race next season after watching Saturday’s 1-1 draw with them at Anfield.
So, how close are Villa to closing the gap and perhaps even competing on even terms with the teams currently above them? Their games in recent weeks paint a telling picture.
Newcastle demolished to show signs of progress
It was the 3-0 defeat of Newcastle on April 15 that reduced the gap to the top four to six points.
Villa wanted to show what they were made of and did so by brushing Newcastle aside after Emery came up with the perfect way for them to win. Somehow, the Champions League was in sight.
In the days before his most satisfying result so far as Villa manager, Emery sat with his assistant Pako Ayestaran and talked about the changing landscape of the Premier League.
They had watched a round of European fixtures where Manchester City beat Bayern Munich convincingly and AC Milan saw off title-bound Italian rivals Napoli, both in the Champions League. One of Emery’s former clubs, Sevilla, continued their love affair with the Europa League, scoring two late goals at Old Trafford to draw with Manchester United (Sevilla would go on to take the tie and are now into their fifth Europa League final in 10 years, having won the previous four); and the 51-year-old was glued to every second.
As discussions turned back to domestic football, Ayestaran identified a changing of the times, with more clubs challenging the established elite of the ‘Big Six’.
The pair digested those midweek results and swiftly switched focus to preparing for the visit of Newcastle.
Emery, with additional time in the absence of midweek European football at Villa this season, planned a key change. He would encourage goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez to mix up his range of kicking in an attempt to nullify what he believed was Newcastle’s biggest strength: their intense pressing system.
As early as the second minute in the game, Emery was reinforcing that message to Martinez, reminding him to go long rather than patiently build up via centre-backs Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa — a method that had worked well in previous weeks.
Martinez occasionally found attacking left-back Alex Moreno, which helped bypass Newcastle’s front three.
It was not perfect from the 2022 World Cup winner, as his passing accuracy dropped from 90 per cent in the victory over Nottingham Forest a week earlier to 61 per cent that day. His brave distribution paid dividends, though, as when he got it right, it sliced through Newcastle and created space for Villa to wreak havoc.
Ramsey, who scored an early opening goal, was a key player as he took up a narrow position on the left side, continually dragging opposition right-back Kieran Trippier into uncomfortable positions and freeing up room for Moreno and Ollie Watkins to operate.
It was Villa’s most complete Premier League performance in over a decade, but if there was one highlight, it was Moreno’s link-up play with striker Watkins, who scored the other two goals.
Emery had spoken to Moreno in the days before the match, telling him he was pleased with his efforts since joining from Real Betis as his first Villa signing in January. He also singled out Watkins as a player the rest of the group should follow, largely because of his dedication to improving.
What the Newcastle game also showed is that meticulous planner Emery is a tough nut to crack when his ideas are right. The fans sang loud and proud inside Villa Park and their team now had seven games remaining to make their mark.
Falling flat in Manchester
Villa followed the Newcastle win by picking up four points from games against Brentford and Fulham to keep them in contention before making the trip to Manchester.
Old Trafford has not been a happy hunting ground for them in the Premier League, but rarely had they turned up in better shape. Over two months, only Manchester City were in better form. Emery was brave, starting again with a high defensive line and encouraging a controlled, possession-based approach.
Villa trained a day before the game on patterns of play intended to tire and frustrate their opponents, but they fell short. They were flat. Their high line, seen so often in previous matches, was exposed for the only goal of the day, scored by Bruno Fernandes — just the third Villa had conceded in eight outings.
“We lost the game by trying to build up and then not remaining focused when we had to defend,” Emery said.
The most disappointing part of their first defeat in 11 matches was failing to score, which had never happened before in 22 games under Emery across all competitions.
The table started to even itself out, too. As other clubs played their games in hand, Villa dropped down to eighth place, nine points off the top four.
Were they running on empty?
Emery celebrates with selfies after Spurs win
The detailed video sessions are so long at Villa under Emery that players have to be careful not to drink too much water or else face the embarrassment of asking to be excused before they end.
Two days before hosting Tottenham last weekend, Emery’s morning meeting lasted almost two hours. He was pumped up, telling his players how they should be excited to have the opportunity to draw level on points with Spurs, who had more than double their total of 12 when he took over at the start of November.
There were similar reminders to be ‘demanding’ and not let standards slip on the back of two defeats in a row (Villa followed the Manchester United game with a loss away to Wolves).
Emery also spoke about reconnecting with the supporters and for a man who has won a record four Europa Leagues, this felt like he was preparing for a final. “It may be our last opportunity,” he said when asked about qualifying to play in Europe next season. Victory, he knew, would be essential.
The ploy that was said to have been the most motivating among the players was when he picked out moments from past home games to illustrate exactly what he wanted.
They had won five on the spin at Villa Park without conceding, but the manager asked for a more complete performance, similar to the one against Newcastle — a point he emphasised when The Athletic asked about that home form.
“I’ve reminded the players that we won against Crystal Palace, we won against Bournemouth, we won against Nottingham, we won against Fulham, but we WON (speaking loudly) against Newcastle — a very amazing match.
“On Saturday (against Tottenham) we will PLAY (again speaking loudly) being strong enough.”
The players were inspired by his words and confident in his message. The high line was again deployed and this time there were no mistakes. Richarlison and Son Heung-min were continuously caught offside as Villa stepped up and out of defence with confidence.
Emery asked for a controlled and measured performance and got it with bells on. Ramsey linked up well with Leon Bailey to score the first early on and the extra training around set pieces paid off as Douglas Luiz scored what turned out to be the winner from a direct free kick.
Set-piece coach Austin MacPhee has been given extra responsibility under Emery and his clever, pre-planned routines have made a difference.
Each player has a specific role in creating a setup that benefits the free kick or corner taker. On this occasion, it was Ashley Young’s job to remind referee Peter Bankes to assemble the wall at the correct distance of 10 yards. Other Villa players then tagged onto the end of the wall to obstruct goalkeeper Fraser Forster’s view, while the rest of the team were strategically positioned to either block off Spurs defenders or react to any potential rebound.
With everything in place, Luiz stepped up to shoot with confidence, knowing that because of his extra practice — and the additional help his team-mates were providing — his chances of scoring were much greater.
Villa Park erupted as the ball hit the net and Emery then reverted to a favoured old tactic of adding another player into the back line to create a block of five when seeing out the game.
The Spaniard then came out of character prematurely by celebrating with supporters at the final whistle. Usually, he just darts off down the tunnel to reflect on what he has just seen.
As Emery’s Audi joined traffic outside the stadium later, he rolled down his window outside a nearby fish and chip shop to allow a group of fans to take selfies with him. The same group then tried to speed up his journey home by encouraging cars in front of his to let the boss through.
Now, could Emery find a way to stop Liverpool at Anfield?
Villa to follow Liverpool’s lead after Klopp praise
The plan for large periods of this one was to frustrate Liverpool and limit clear-cut chances. Many Villa managers before Emery have tried a similar approach at Anfield and failed — their most recent win there was in September 2014 under Paul Lambert.
But for as hard as Villa fought yesterday, Liverpool always looked likely to score. That the breakthrough came in the form of a 90th-minute equaliser by Roberto Firmino, who was playing his final home game for the club, was cruel.
Villa had worked on similar themes that for so long looked to be key to a famous victory.
Again they stuck with their high line, catching Liverpool offside after 90 seconds and on four other occasions thereafter.
The choice of Matty Cash at right-back added fresh legs and additional pace. Ramsey was again the opening goalscorer after Watkins had missed a penalty. Set-piece routines continued to be creative and MacPhee even dropped to his knees wondering how Ramsey did not score from a wonderfully worked play involving Luiz just before half-time.
Villa even showed they could dabble in the dark arts, too. They had four players booked for time-wasting (Martinez, Lucas Digne, Young and Konsa) — the joint-most on record (since 2006-07) for a club in a single Premier League match.
The ideas were good but Liverpool just had that crucial star quality — a delightful pass by Mohamed Salah and an acrobatic finish from Firmino — to get a result from the game.
The draw reminded Emery of this week in 2016 when his Sevilla side came from a goal down at half-time to beat Klopp’s Liverpool 3-1 in the Europa League final, a result that left the Anfield giants without any European football the following season.
“The progress Liverpool made over the past seven years and the level they are at with the coach, the structure and the players is very high,” Emery said. “It is a way I want to see (at Villa). I want to take away some reference of what they are doing.”
By next Sunday night, Villa will know if they are back in Europe, a stage they haven’t been on since 2011.
But whatever happens in that finale with Brighton, they have ended Liverpool’s seven-game winning run, heaped further misery onto Tottenham’s imploding season and produced a performance against Newcastle that will long live in the memory.
Villa have a team to be feared again.
(Top photo: Jan Kruger/Getty Images)