2024 Oscars Best Picture Predictions – Variety

Apple Original Films

Look at where we’ve been in 2023 and where Hollywood movies are heading in the year’s second half

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: June 1, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Writer/director Wes Anderson on the set of ASTEROID CITY, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Roger Do Minh/Pop. 87 Productions/Focus Features
Courtesy of Roger Do Minh/Pop. 8

Weekly Commentary: We very briefly interrupt your Emmy Awards season to briefly review upcoming film awards rosters for next year’s Academy Awards.

The Cannes Film Festival concluded where Neon’s “Anatomy of a Fall” won the Palme d’Or,r with A24’s “The Zone of Interest” taking the runner-up slot. Both international dramas have the type of acclaim that could garner industry-wide support. Not to mention the potential for two non-English language titles making the best picture lineup.

In addition, Todd Haynes’ “May December” was well received before Netflix picked it up. The dramedy will be a hot title with contenders like Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman in the mix. We’ll see how U.S. audiences react to generally well-received films like Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City” liked films

Apple’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which premiered out-of-competition, firmly placed the Martin Scorsese epic in the hunt with the star power of Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro and the discovery of Lily Gladstone.

The first ranked listing below is preliminary and won’t be updated again until the fall festival season. Additionally, all release dates are subject to change, and not every film, title or producing credits have been confirmed.

The 50,000-foot overview of all other categories can be found on the Oscars collective page.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

“Maestro” (Netflix)
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
“May December” (Netflix)
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophia Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

Next in Line

“Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
“Past Lives” (A24)
“The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
“Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
“Air” (Amazon Studios)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“The Killer” (Netflix)
“Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Foe” (Amazon Studios)
“Challengers” (Amazon/MGM)
“Fair Play” (Netflix)
“The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
“Nyad” (Netflix)
“Rustin” (Netflix)
“A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Golda” (Bleecker Street)

Also In Contention

“Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
“Ferrari” (STX Films)
“Perfect Days” (Neon)
“Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
“Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
“Priscilla” (A24)
“How Do You Live?” (GKids)
“Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.