Public holiday racing in Sydney on Monday heads to Warwick Farm for an eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.
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Race 1. (12:15) Schweppes Mdn Plate 1200m
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I am a bit surprised that 1 Arctic Glamour (Bet Now: $4.20) isn’t favourite. Ryan/Alexiou trained filly that is on debut and I have been quite taken by her two trials to get ready for start one, each time seeing her near the speed and trucked to my eye with plenty up the sleeve. Bred to appreciate much further so the fact she has been sharp in trials tells me she goes pretty good.
Danger
4 Kitty Chat (Bet Now: $2.80) is a GaiBott filly that is on debut. This girl has been well educated for start one with a Summer prep without a run. Spelled and has had two trials this time in, each time placing and moved well enough. Stable are having a pretty good run with their younger horses and potentially with an on speed pattern, she’ll take running down.
Long Shot
3 Joliestar (Bet Now: $6.00) is a beautifully bred filly for Chris Waller having start one. Her debut comes off the back of two trials, the latest seeing her win over 900m at Rosehill and seemingly did it quite nicely in solid enough time. Tricky draw, so likely gets snagged back, but think she has the engine under the hood to measure up.
Race 2. (12:50) Precise Air Mdn Plate 1200m
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7 Need Some Luck (Bet Now: $1.85) is short enough but it’s hard seeing him getting beat. He was huge in defeat when debuting here, sitting wide no cover for the trip and was very keen in the run but kept finding the line in a strong debut when second to Piercing Arrow. Has a gate to get cover, get an economical run, and if there is petrol left in the tank, he’s clearly the one to beat.
Danger
6 Jagit (Bet Now: $5.00) will land on speed and take running down for GaiBott. He was kept pretty safe in betting when debuting at Rosehill a few weeks ago and I thought did a pretty good job on speed, sticking on well enough behind dominant winner Celestial Legend, who has the potential to be a smart three year old next season. Jagit has good room for improvement and has the right racing style.
Long Shot
Fitter and back in depth are two big ticks for 4 Griff (Bet Now: $14.00). Maher/Eustace trained colt that resumed in the Celestial Legend race from a few weeks back at Rosehill and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind the Les Bridge juvenile. Back to this depth looks a big tick for him, and if he can settle closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous.
Race 3. (13:25) Castelvecchio (Bm64) 1300m
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6 Bunker Hut (Bet Now: $3.20) is running out of chances but gee he looks to have found a very thin race. He was heavily backed last time out at Canterbury but seemingly had every chance from off the speed and just whacked to the line behind Consenza. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run and off the effort prior behind the classy Yellow Brick, that surely has this lot covered.
Danger
8 Outsider (Bet Now: $4.20) should land on speed and take running down. Resumed in a 1200m maiden here and she showed good ticker to win because she was there to be run down from on speed but she kept finding under pressure to fend them off and win. More depth here, but good racing style, has more upside than most and is in winning form.
Long Shot
3 Bat Out Of Hell (Bet Now: $6.50) commands some level of respect. He ran third in the Consenza race mentioned above where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never a threat but really liked the way he finished his race off late in the piece to run third. Can settle much closer in the run from the better gate and stable is flying.
Race 4. (14:00) Bisley Workwear (Bm72) 2140m
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3 Just A Jedi (Bet Now: $4.60) on top. Ryan/Alexiou trained gelding that saves his best for this track it seems and is knocking on the door to win. He ran over 1900m at Canterbury last time out where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never really a threat but you had to like the way he finished his race off behind Manbehindthemoney. Love him up in trip and will be stronger than most at the end.
Danger
2 So United (Bet Now: $5.50) will jump on the bunny and give them something to chase. He ran a few weeks ago at Randwick over 2000m where he did too much work on speed and felt the pinch in the straight, finishing down the track behind Naval College. This is a significant drop in depth, he gets in well after the claim and will give a big sight.
Long Shot
1 Deniliquin (Bet Now: $9.00) is dangerous. He ran down the track in the Naval College race mentioned above and I’d be forgiving of the effort given he bombed the start and was never a factor. Big tick is getting Blinkers back on to sharpen him up, and is a winner at the track, so IMO, he can run a much improved race.
Race 5. (14:35) Tab (Bm64) 1600m
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11 Gleefilly (Bet Now: $9.00) is a filly I want to speck each way. Chris Waller trained filly that resumed over 1300m here where she was a notable drifter in the betting, with the market saying she’d need the run and that is exactly how it panned out. Loomed to win 250m out but condition just gave way late. Better for the run under the belt, I think she’s worth something each way.
Danger
2 Commandment (Bet Now: $7.00) is a former European mare that is working up to an Australian win. Bit on the plain side two back during the Scone Carnival before going to Newcastle and the mile where she ran a much improved race when second to Rich And Shameless. She is fourth up from a break so she should be at peak fitness and off her overseas form, she looks hard to beat against these.
Long Shot
7 Guzumped (Bet Now: $16.00) has more upside than most and comes into this as a last start winner. That win came first up over the mile at Kembla where he showed good ticker to fend them off and win. He had the suck run behind the speed and took a while to get into his work but kept finding to get the win. Not sure he wins, but for multiples, I can certainly entertain him.
Race 6. (15:10) Ole Kirk @ Vinery Stud (Bm72) 1600m
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2 King Of The Castle (Bet Now: $2.45) is one of the hardest to beat. He was a strong winner two back on the Kenso before going to Rosehill where he was drawn wide, snagged back and never a factor when down the track behind Robusto. Has home track advantage and can settle much closer in the run, plus gets a big jockey upgrade. Happy to be in his corner.
Danger
Think 10 Darlington County (Bet Now: $14.00) is worth a throw at the stumps at odds in including. Formerly in NZ with Bill Thurlow, he makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller. His last run came on April 15 when a game second over 2100m at Hastings. Didn’t mind the way he went in a recent trial at Randwick and yes, 1600m is short of his best, but looking at his NZ form, it does read well enough for a race like this.
Long Shot
9 Crystal Waters (Bet Now: $27.00) is a first four contender. Paul Murray trained mare that ran over 1400m at Kembla last time when getting the suck run behind the speed and was looking to angle clear, but things didn’t eventuate for her and it ended up being an ugly watch. Stable has had recent success when coming to town and overall, this isn’t a deep race.
Race 7. (15:45) Proven Thoroughbreds (Bm72) 1300m
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12 Step Aside (Bet Now: $4.60) on top for me. Chris Waller trained gelding that has done a really good job this time in. Let down with purpose from the back when winning the maiden fresh at Kembla before racing here when chasing from a fair way out and did loom to win but couldn’t quite get there when second to In De Summertime. Hard fit now, has a gate to do no work, he’ll do me.
Danger
8 Selous (Bet Now: $4.20) is one of the key threats. Talented animal for James Cummings that was a narrow second at Scone two back before going to Kembla where he looked a good thing on paper and was ridden accordingly by Jennings, bolting up and running decent time. He’s found that winning feeling again and he can certainly go on with it.
Long Shot
2 Dimaggio (Bet Now: $31.00) is one I can entertain for exotics. He resumed in a Midway at Randwick where he bombed the start and that pretty much sealed his fate when down the track behind impressive winner Crafty Eagle. Great second up record and Rory Hutchings does get on very well with him so I think he can run a much improved race at odds.
Race 8. (16:20) Furphy (Bm72) 1100m
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8 Salire (Bet Now: $14.00) has the engine under the hood to blouse these. Whether this is a prep run to keep him on ice for a Class 3 Highway, not sure, but I know he can produce a booming finale. He ran in the Highway at Gosford last time where he got back in the run and made up headway without threatening. Host of gear changes to sharpen him up and he’ll launch at them late.
Danger
13 Waikiki (Bet Now: $3.10) is a nice filly for Chris Waller that is one of the hardest to beat. Narrow second fresh on the Kenso track before racing here where they rode her with a sit and launched late when eventually getting clear to finish over the top for a big win. Now she has finally got the win on the board, she can certainly go on with it.
Long Shot
6 Luna Rocks (Bet Now: $21.00) can run a much improved race at this level. She is several weeks between runs since contesting the Denise’s Joy at Scone where she just found them a bit sharp when down the track behind Red Card, who has won another Stakes race since, so the form does read well really, and the tick over trial was a lovely piece of work.
BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Bunker Hut
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 12 Step Aside
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 Salire
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 7, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 9, 10
Leg Three: 8, 12
Leg Four: 6, 8, 11, 12, 13
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
