12/6/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington

An eight event meeting has been set down for Mornington on Monday. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

7 Lady Of Savoy (Bet Now: $4.60) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Tivaci filly for Matt Laurie that debuted in the Autumn in the Redoutes Choice where she was very raw and new to the caper when down the track behind I Am Unstoppable. Been given a good break and I thought the recent jumpout was a lovely piece of work so keen to see how he goes against these.

Danger

1 Devils Delight (Bet Now: $2.15) is one of the key threats. Phillip Stokes trained gelding that comes here off the back of a dominant maiden win at Ballarat where he scooted along in front and gave nothing else a look in, winning comfortably.

Long Shot

2 Bullhouse (Bet Now: $13.00) is one to watch from a market perspective. He is a son of Bull Point for Nikki Burke that is on debut. He’s been given a good grounding for start one with three jumpouts under his belt this time in for start one, the latest coming last week and seemingly moved pretty well to my eye. Blake Shinn booked as well so watch the market and see what it does.

Back Me

6 Von Hauke (Bet Now: $2.25) is short enough but I do think he is clearly the one to beat. He is a nice horse for Cliff Brown that resumes, having not raced since the Future Stars Final at Pakenham when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind Marble Arch. Loved the way he went in a recent trial win at Moe and this stable can get them ready early on in a prep. Hopefully the market says he’s ready to go.

Danger

4 Metrical (Bet Now: $5.50) has a bit of quality about him so I will be keen to see how he goes. Kiwi raider that makes his Australian debut for Michael Moroney. He hasn’t raced since Feb 3 at Te Rapa when just failing to see out the 2100m behind Kiwi Man. He has looked strong in a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one down under and stable finds B Shinn to steer.

Long Shot

5 Tidal Force (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Darci Brahma gelding that makes his Australian debut for Busuttin/Young and they are a very good stable when it comes overseas raiders, whether it be New Zealand or Europe. His form across the ditch does read pretty well for a race like this and with a couple of strong jumpouts at Cranbourne, he’s ready to. Watch the market and see what it does.

Back Me

Looks like they will go hard in front so looking for a swooper and 6 Bye Bye Betty (Bet Now: $8.00) fits the bill. She’s had two career outings, winning impressively on debut over 975m at Swan Hill before going to 1100m at Bendigo where she got a mile out of her ground but was a real eye catcher late in the piece behind Legio Ten, who has won in town to frank the form. Fast run 1000m, B Shinn aboard, she’ll take beating.

Danger

2 Greyt Mumma (Bet Now: $2.70) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Team Freedman trained filly that spanked them fresh in a moderate race under the lights at Cranbourne before going to Sandown where she was tardy away and couldn’t lead, which essentially sealed her fate when down the track behind Flying On A Limb. Back to this grade, Billy Pinn aboard, she’ll take running down I am sure.

Long Shot

They have tried to ride 9 Fly Nice (Bet Now: $13.00) with a sit and while she has been solid, she hasn’t been winning. I just think let her jump and run. Plus, the claim for Campbell, she does appeal if those tactics are adopted. Her last run came on the Synthetic at Ballarat and kept finding the line in a solid effort behind Over Shady. Down in the weights, near the front, she commands some level of respect.

Back Me

3 Rivaport (Bet Now: $6.50) is running out of chances but does look to find a very thin race. She won really well at Sandown three back but in two subsequent runs, she has been a bit on the plain side behind Fancylanski and Pitchanun respectively. Tricky draw, but I think getting to 2000m will suit and she does find B Shinn to steer so she has a bit in her corner.

Danger

Have said for a few weeks that John Leek Jnr is finding form with the Bob Peters horses and case in point is 2 Mystery Moment (Bet Now: $7.50). Lot of quality about her effort over the mile two back at Pakenham before going to this track/distance at the midweeks where she lobbed into a beaut spot under Pinn and no doubt IMO that the ride won the race. Now she has found winning form, she can go on with it.

Long Shot

5 Sky Horse (Bet Now: $13.00) is a knockout chance for Michelle Payne. She ran two weeks ago at the mile at Sandown when back off the good speed and found the line really well I thought when a close up fourth to Pitchanun, beaten just under three lengths. She can be hard to catch at times, but the way she is racing at the moment, being around the mark, she commands respect.

Back Me

D-Day for 5 Chicago Bear (Bet Now: $3.70). Contender or pretender time. He has promised to be a nice horse since arriving from overseas but he has let punters down. That said, he was big odds at Flemington last time and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Daytona Bay. He was 1400m to 1800m there so he has the run under the belt at a trip and now getting to 2000m, drops miles in grade/depth, he is clearly the one to beat, but it’s last chance territory.

Danger

4 Chartres (Bet Now: $5.50) was a bit in the wilderness after a promising start to his career but he bounced back to winning form last time at the Cranbourne mile, finding a pretty thin race and was a dominant winner after getting a suck run in behind. He can go on with it now I am sure and the way he attacked the line last start, I think 2000m will be no issue.

Long Shot

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 3 Bedford (Bet Now: $15.00) for Team Freedman. This guy resumed over the mile at Sandown and just found them a bit sharp when down the track behind Brayden Star. Tick over jumps trial suggests that either jumping is his future or that was a trial to sharpen him up. I think watch the market and see what it does with him.

Back Me

1 Mamaragan (Bet Now: $10.00) is a very interesting runner. Nick Ryan trains this enigmatic sprinter, who was down to resume in Sydney on Saturday, where he started his career before heading to Ryan, where he did a solid job when last in work. Resumes off the back of some solid jumpout work in Victoria and gee this race is thin. I’d watch the market and see what it does, but I think on form, he’s hard to beat.

Danger

3 Our Heidi (Bet Now: $5.50) looks extremely well suited back to 1000m for Phillip Stokes. This girl ran down the straight at Flemington last time and just found them a bit sharp but also, I don’t think 1100m at that level is her go when down the track behind Sigh. Back to 1000m and back miles in depth, if there is petrol in the tank, she is one of the key chances.

Long Shot

9 Tax Free Prophet (Bet Now: $8.00) can be hit and miss at times but he has the engine under the hood to measure up. His latest effort came over 1000m at Sale at the midweeks and finished his race off with purpose, just missing out on the win when second to noted short course specialist Epic Centre. That was his first run in a month so he has good room for improvement.

Back Me

4 Mrs Chrissie (Bet Now: $2.90) is one of the key chances for the Maher/Eustace camp. This mare spanked them two back at Ballarat before racing down the straight at Flemington a few weeks back where the market kept her very safe and after sitting near the speed, she stuck on pretty well in defeat behind a very nice mare, Sigh. Good racing style, in form and will look the winner for a long way I am sure.

Danger

11 Elly Dee (Bet Now: $5.50) has found winning form and she can certainly go on with it. She was knocking on the door to break her maiden tag but kept finding one better. That all changed last time at Ballarat with a positive ride seeing her make a mess of a seemingly average bunch, but she did it nicely enough and won with something in hand. Harder here, but think she can measure up.

Long Shot

7 Lulu Darling (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Market said she would need the run when resuming over 1200m at Pakenham where she got a fair way out of her ground but really liked the way she finished her race off behind Trading Post, running second. Has the potential to settle much closer in the run and has more upside than most.

Back Me

6 Immortality (Bet Now: $3.20) will do me in the get out. This Price/Kent gelding resumed in a maiden at Geelong where the market said he was a moral and duly saluted, sitting on speed before being clicked up by Williams and he went through his gears like a nice horse to win well. Lands in a plums pot from the gate, gets Shinn and strikes another winnable race.

Danger

1 Mr Mojo Risin (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Kiwi who hasn’t been too bad in two Australian runs for Andrew Forsman. Just ridden a touch warm I thought and tired late in the piece two back at Flemington before going to Sandown where he did a fair amount of work early on and I think that burn just told on him late in the piece, running a narrow second to Cardigan Queen. Off the win first up back home in NZ, it would just about take this out.

Long Shot

All you can do is win and that is what 7 Great Gust (Bet Now: $20.00) did on debut at Geelong. He was on speed throughout and what I liked is that he was there to be run down but he found under pressure to fend them off and get the job done narrowly but impressively. The end of 1200m is a slight query but with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 Von Hauke

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Immortality

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 6 Bye Bye Betty

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 9

Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 7, 11

Leg Four: 6

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